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6/21

05:26

Iranian President: $6 billion in frozen funds held by Qatar Will Be Returned

Svmuu News: According to Al Jazeera, the Iranian president stated that, as part of a preliminary agreement to end the war with the United States, the $6 billion in frozen funds currently held by Qatar will be returned. (Jin Shi)

05:18

Iranian media report that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero

Svmuu News: According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, maritime navigation data shows that since the Iranian military announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the 20th, no vessels have passed through this strategic waterway, and traffic has dropped to zero. Contrary to U.S. military claims, the strait is currently under Iranian control and has been blockaded. (CCTV International News)

04:51

Iranian Military Source: The Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed; No Passage Permits Will Be Issued Until Further Notice

Svmuu News: According to Iranian military sources, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Until further notice, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy will not issue passage permits to any vessels. (Jin Shi)

04:48

Will the bear market continue? Coinbase Bitcoin The Premium Index has remained negative for 44 consecutive days, setting a new record for the “longest streak of negative readings.” It currently stands at -0.1089%.

Svmuu News: According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained in negative territory for 44 consecutive days (from May 19 to present), with the latest reading at -0.1089%.This index measures the deviation of BTC prices on Coinbase (a major U.S. compliant platform) from the global average price. A sustained negative value indicates heavy selling pressure in the U.S. market, a decline in risk appetite, capital outflows, or rising risk-averse sentiment.Historical data shows that prolonged negative premiums are often accompanied by the exit of U.S. institutional capital, so caution is warranted regarding short-term correction pressure. Darkfost, an author on the CryptoQuant platform, noted in a post that institutional demand for BTC tends to lag. Coinbase The Premium Index is primarily used to assess demand for Bitcoin among professionals and institutions. By comparing BTC prices on Coinbase Advanced and Binance, you can directly gauge the buying behavior of these users. A negative value indicates that institutional investors are selling more than retail investors, who are mostly active on Binance. Their behavior has led to a decline in the price of the Coinbase Advanced Index. Previously, the index remained in negative premium for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 of this year, setting the longest streak of negative premiums since the indicator’s launch and surpassing the approximately 30-day streak recorded during the “1011 crash.”

Will the bear market continue? Coinbase Bitcoin The Premium Index has remained negative for 44 consecutive days, setting a new record for the “longest streak of negative readings.” It currently stands at -0.1089%.

04:38

Adam Back: Strategy Won’t Drop to Zero; Bearish Views on STRC Are Unfounded

Svmuu News: Crypto-punk pioneer Adam Back stated that the market’s negative view of Strategy and its preferred shares (STRC) is unfounded, as what Strategy is doing is essentially “selling Bitcoin to pay dividends,” without changing its Bitcoin reserve strategy, and is in fact “proving that it is possible to pay returns to investors through Bitcoin while reducing the debt-to-equity ratio.” Adam Back further pointed out that Strategy is demonstrating to the market a new financial model, in which Bitcoin may become an alternative asset to cash in the future for corporate asset management and capital operations. He noted that the FUD surrounding MSTR and STRC has been exaggerated, and Strategy will not “go to zero”; its long-term value lies in continuously holding Bitcoin and promoting market understanding of Bitcoin’s monetary attributes.

04:27

Binance Alpha will list Arcium (ARX)

Svmuu News: According to an official announcement, Binance Alpha will list Arcium (ARX) on June 22. Eligible users can visit the Alpha event page and use their Binance Alpha points to claim the airdrop once trading on Alpha begins. Further details will be announced at a later date.

04:27

Iran: One-Day Talks in Switzerland to Focus on a Ceasefire in Lebanon

Svmuu News: According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei stated that the one-day conference in Birgen, Switzerland, will feature a four-party joint meeting between Iran, the United States, Qatar, and Pakistan this afternoon. Today’s meeting is a follow-up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding reached with the United States. The United States’ failure to secure a ceasefire in Lebanon will be a central issue at the Swiss meeting. The meeting will also address other topics, including exemptions for Iranian oil sales and the unfreezing of Iran’s frozen assets. (Jin Shi)

04:21

Citrini Analyst Jukan: Citibank’s Report Is Conservative; Micron Technology (MU) May Exceed Expectations in This Quarter’s Earnings

Svmuu News: Jukan, a researcher at the well-known investment research firm Citrini, posted on X stating that after reviewing Citigroup’s earnings preview report, he believes the firm’s assumptions regarding Micron’s average selling price are too conservative. If market consensus aligns with this view, Micron may outperform expectations this quarter.Data shows that Micron’s (MU) stock price is currently trading at $1,133.99. In related news, several institutions have raised their price targets for Micron (MU) to between $1,200 and $1,500, including: Citigroup raised its price target for Micron to $1,200;Wedge Bush raised its target price for Micron to $1,300; Deutsche Bank and investment bank Stifel raised their target price for Micron to $1,500.

04:11

Already 99% Allocated to the Position? Chuanmu Remains Bullish on Hynix: Still 50% Upside Potential from Current Price, Target Price Set at 3.9 million won,

Svmuu News: Well-known stock trader Chuan Mu posted on Platform X, stating, “Hynix is currently trading at 2.76 million won, leaving a 50% upside to its revalued market cap of 3.9 million won. The gains from this market revaluation will go to those who hold onto Hynix shares for the next 45 days.” The day the U.S. ADR goes live will mark the completion of the revaluation. Institutions won’t leave much profit room for retail investors—just as they do with IPOs, they’ll sell to retail investors only after extracting the maximum possible valuation.” " Additionally, he revealed: “Half of my current portfolio is in Hynix, and the other half is in a 2x Hynix leveraged ETF; I only have a 1% cash position.” According to the chart he attached, Hynix’s stock price is currently trading at 2.764 million won. Previously, on April 27, when Hynix’s stock price was 1.286 million won, he publicly posted: “Once the market reclassifies memory stocks from cyclical to growth stocks, Hynix’s stock price could triple to 3.9 million won.”

04:09

Hong Kong Police: Over 2,000 People Arrested for Fraud and Money Laundering in the First Quarter of This Year; 70 Percent of Cases Involved “Straw Accounts”

Svmuu News: The Financial Intelligence and Investigation Bureau of the Hong Kong Police Force, in collaboration with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Hong Kong Association of Banks, jointly organized an “Anti-Money Laundering Exhibition.” Hong Kong Police Commissioner Zhou Yiming disclosed data showing that in the first quarter of this year, Hong Kong recorded more than 9,400 fraud cases, a decrease of about 60 cases compared to the same period last year; however, the amount of losses exceeded 1.85 billion Hong Kong dollars, an increase of nearly 300 million Hong Kong dollars compared to the same period last year. Approximately 2,000 people were arrested in the first quarter of this year in connection with fraud and money laundering cases, of whom about 70 percent were holders of “straw accounts.” The Hong Kong Police Force reminds the public that, under the law, a conviction for money laundering is punishable by a maximum fine of HK$5 million and up to 14 years’ imprisonment; in addition, the police may apply to the court for a harsher sentence depending on the circumstances. (HK01)

04:08

Polymarket’s probability that “Claude Fable 5 will resume service for U.S. customers by June 26” has dropped to 41%, down 16% over the past 24 hours.

According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, the probability on Polymarket that “Claude Fable 5 will resume service for U.S. customers by June 26” has dropped to 41%, a 16% decline over the past 24 hours. Due to export controls imposed by the U.S. government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. The latest reports indicate that Anthropic executives have submitted a proposal to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnick and have pledged to work more closely with the White House to address the security concerns that led to restrictions on its powerful “Mythos” and “Fable” models. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that, during ongoing negotiations regarding corrective measures, Anthropic has pledged to resolve any security issues more swiftly in the future, though there is currently no specific timeline for a complete resolution.Another source stated that Anthropic co-founder and Chief Computing Officer Tom Brown, along with Public Policy Director Sarah Heck, are leading negotiations with Donald Trump government officials; however, representatives from both Anthropic and the Department of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment. The Svmuu Seer channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before they are priced in.

04:03

Crypto OG Questions World Chain’s L2 Ecosystem Activity: Blob Submission Volume Ranks Second Only to Base, but the On-Chain Application Ecosystem Is Extremely Sparse

Svmuu News: Recently, crypto influencer and DeFi OG Chen Mo posted on X, citing L2 Blob submission volume data, stating: “This is a bit surprising. Based on Blob submission volume, Base is undoubtedly number one among L2s, but World Chain (WLD) is actually in second place. The higher this number, the greater the transaction volume and the busier the network. Moreover, from 2025 to the present, World Chain has consistently held the second-place position behind Base, and has even consistently ranked ahead of Arbitrum for years. Who exactly is using it? The data suggests stable user demand, but there don’t seem to be many on-chain applications. Aside from using it a few times on Morpho, I rarely use it myself. Do the specific use cases within the Worldcoin ecosystem—such as identity verification and payments—really account for such a large volume?”

Crypto OG Questions World Chain’s L2 Ecosystem Activity: Blob Submission Volume Ranks Second Only to Base, but the On-Chain Application Ecosystem Is Extremely Sparse

03:43

"The White-Haired Stock Guru" Offers a Sharp Analysis of Market Regulation: Additional Regulatory Scrutiny Is on the Horizon; The Impact of Polymarket KOLs’ Paid Marketing on X’s Algorithmic Behavior Should Be Investigated

Svmuu News: In response to today’s Wall Street Journal report alleging that “Polymarket is accused of marketing to U.S. users through simulated trades and fake profit videos,” “White-Haired Stock Guru” Serenity posted on X, stating that prediction markets will face a significant amount of additional regulatory scrutiny. She pointed out that regulators should also investigate how Polymarket pays influencers for undisclosed sponsored reviews designed to manipulate X’s algorithm. She noted that, as the user with the most followers on X, she frequently receives such collaboration offers but refuses paid promotions to ensure her personal research remains free from external influence. Furthermore, in the comments section, she reiterated: “I only use X; any accounts on other platforms are scams.”

03:38

Polymarket has added a new bet: “Can BLG achieve the ‘Golden Path’ (Grand Slam)?” The current probability is provisionally reported at 9%.

According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, with the League of Legends MSI (Mid-Season Invitational) World Championship set to begin on June 28, Polymarket has added a new bet: “Will BLG achieve the ‘Golden Path’ (Grand Slam)?” The probability of this event is currently reported at 9%, down 39% over the past 24 hours. Previously, BLG defeated LEC team G2 to win the 2026 League of Legends Global Pioneers Championship. The rules for this event are as follows: if BLG completes the “Golden Path” this year, the event is deemed “Yes.” This means BLG must achieve the feat of winning all major League of Legends esports tournaments within 2026. In other words, the team’s players must win all regional competitions while also participating in all three major international tournaments: the Pioneer Series, MSI, and the World Championship. The source of this information will be official data from the League of Legends Esports website (https://lolesports.com). However, you may also refer to reliable reports, such as content on Liquipedia. The Svmuu Seer channel continuously monitors prediction markets to spot changes before prices are set.

03:27

Kalshi's trading volume this month is close to surpassing last month's nominal total trading volume of nearly $18 billion.

Svmuu News: KalshiData posted on X stating that Kalshi is about to surpass last month’s nominal trading volume of nearly $18 billion.

Kalshi's trading volume this month is close to surpassing last month's nominal total trading volume of nearly $18 billion.

03:26

Open interest in prediction markets has hit a record high for two consecutive weeks, reaching $1.48 billion.

Svmuu News: a16z crypto posted on X that open interest in prediction markets reached $1.48 billion in the week ending June 15, setting a new all-time high for the second consecutive week. Unlike trading volume, which reflects daily activity, open interest tracks the funds that participants have deployed and that remain at risk. This metric has grown approximately sixfold over the past year, indicating that users are maintaining longer-term financial positions and that prediction markets are evolving into a sustainable market infrastructure. Major events attract large numbers of users, and more traders are staying to participate in a wide range of markets covering politics, economics, culture, and crypto. In a previous report, a16z crypto noted that the combined impact of multiple events, including the World Cup, drove weekly trading volume in prediction markets to a record high of $10.8 billion.

Open interest in prediction markets has hit a record high for two consecutive weeks, reaching $1.48 billion.

03:20

Citrini vs. SemiAnalysis? SemiAnalysis’s founder clashed with a Citrini researcher, claiming that the company had already disclosed information about the Rubin Ultra 12 Hi to its clients back in March.

Svmuu News: Recently, a dispute has flared up again between two well-known investment research firms, Citrini and SemiAnalysis. Citrini researcher Zephyr cited relevant reports stating, “Rubin Ultra HBM performance has actually dropped to the level of 12 Hi, and they haven’t even started using HB technology yet. In 2027, they will not be using 16 Hi chips. Currently, hybrid bonding technology is very expensive for HBM (with extremely low yield rates). BESI’s biggest advantage in the short term is that TSMC employs hybrid bonding technology in its chip manufacturing and packaging processes, enabling the integration of EIC and PIC, which in turn boosts CPO production efficiency.” In response, Citrini researcher Jukan posted a related tweet in the comments section, stating, “I told you this back in April.” In response to this, SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel retweeted a Discord screenshot stating: “Back in March, customers using the SemiAnalysis Memory and Accelerator models were already aware that the Rubin Ultra 16 Hi would be replaced by the 12 Hi version.” Previously, Citrini researcher Jukan had cited reports stating that “NVIDIA plans to drastically cut next-generation rack memory configurations,” which caused the memory sectors of both the U.S. and South Korean stock markets to plummet collectively at the time. SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel clarified that the report was taken out of context and overly sensationalized.

03:07

The first round of formal meetings in Switzerland will take place at 19:30 Beijing time.

Svmuu News: According to reports from the Saudi media outlet Hadath and Al-Arabiya TV, the United States, Iran, and Pakistan have begun bilateral and trilateral talks. Iranian officials stated that the first round of formal negotiations will take place at 11:30 GMT (19:30 Beijing Time). (Jin Shi)

03:02

Polymarket’s probability that “GPT-5.6 will not be released to the public before June 28” has risen to 78%, up 67% in the last 24 hours.

According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, the probability on Polymarket that “GPT-5.6 will not be released to the public before June 28” has risen to 78%, a 67% increase over the past 24 hours. In an internal memo dated June 11, OpenAI Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki described GPT-5.6 as a significant upgrade over GPT-5.5. Analysts believe that previous leaks regarding the Codex backend in May, as well as the rapid iteration pace following the April 23 release of GPT-5.5, have reinforced market expectations of an imminent launch for GPT-5.6. The rules specify that GPT-5.6 includes both models explicitly named GPT-5.6 and models that OpenAI identifies as direct successors to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.). Task-specific models, cost-optimized versions such as Nano/Mini, and the o-series inference models are not included in the scope of this event; next-generation flagship models such as GPT-6 are also ineligible. Eligible models must be officially available to the public, including through open beta or open waitlist formats. Versions available only through closed beta testing or private access do not meet the settlement criteria. This event will primarily rely on OpenAI’s official announcements and information from its official website as the basis for settlement, supplemented by verification through credible media reports. The Svmuu Seer channel continuously monitors prediction markets to spot changes before prices are set.

03:00

Michael Saylor: The Bitcoin community should not split over minor disagreements; it should focus on the opportunities presented by the influx of global capital

Svmuu News: Michael Saylor posted on X, stating that Bitcoin supporters agree on 99% of the important issues and should not allow the 1% of disagreement to divide the community—especially when the vast majority of global capital has yet to enter the Bitcoin currency network, and opportunities far outweigh the arguments.

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