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7/1
11:55
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, Polymarket has added a new prediction event: “Tesla will officially launch a driverless taxi (robotaxi) service in California by December 31, 2026.”
If Tesla officially launches an autonomous taxi service in California that does not require continuous human driver intervention by the end of 2026, the outcome will be deemed “Yes”; otherwise, it will be “No.”
Tesla continues to advance its autonomous driving and robotaxi initiatives, but progress varies significantly by region. Currently, the company is conducting more aggressive testing and planning for driverless transportation in some parts of the U.S. (such as Texas), while its operations in the California market remain largely constrained by a stricter regulatory framework. The California DMV and CPUC have established a multi-stage approval process for commercial autonomous vehicle operations, involving multiple requirements such as road test data, remote safety operator requirements, and commercial passenger transport permits.
At present, Tesla’s operations in California are still primarily limited to supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, and the company has not obtained a commercial robotaxi license permitting fully driverless operations. In contrast, the market generally views the commercialization of its “Cybercab” and robotaxi services as more likely to take root first in regions with more lenient regulations, and progress in California remains highly uncertain.
The Svmuu Seer channel continuously monitors prediction markets, spotting changes before they are priced in.
11:54
Svmuu News: According to Iran's official news agency Shana, Iran is prepared to sell oil to all countries except Israel. (Jin Shi)
11:43
Svmuu News: According to official reports, the decentralized derivatives trading platform Drift has officially rebranded as Velocity. The new name reflects the upgraded platform the team is building; in the perpetual contracts market, execution speed and directional accuracy determine outcomes, and Velocity embodies both while symbolizing the momentum of its relaunch.
This rebranding marks a clear distinction between the past and the future. Velocity represents the long-term vision the team has been building for the exchange, featuring a simpler architecture, a stronger security foundation, and a clearer platform positioning. Velocity will soon release a private beta version to select partners and traders to ensure it is rebuilt as the most robust perpetual contracts exchange on Solana.
11:28
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Chairman Wash has invited former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to serve as co-chair of the newly established communications working group at Federal Reserve. Wash has made reforming Federal Reserve’s communication methods a central focus of his leadership and has pledged to reexamine how officials convey the monetary policy outlook to the public and investors.He has not committed to holding press conferences after every Federal Reserve interest rate decision and has in the past encouraged policymakers to reduce the frequency of their public speeches.
The invitation to Mervyn King to serve as co-chair of the communications working group will provide a rare opportunity for the public to examine the inner workings of Federal Reserve.Mervyn King served as Governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013 and led the bank through the 2008–2009 financial crisis. His office confirmed that he will serve as co-chair of the communication working group. (Jin Shi)
11:23
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “World Cup Round of 16: Belgium vs. Senegal,” the address 0x224a89db28ac7a407d9c634a6e4c426c428c242f purchased 180,000 units betting that Senegal would not win in regulation time. This address has incurred total losses exceeding $3 million, with losses of $240,000 over the past week.
The Svmuu Seer channel continuously monitors prediction markets to spot changes before prices are set.
11:22
Svmuu News: Erik Voorhees, founder of Venice AI, posted on X stating that to complete its $65 million Series A funding round, Venice chose to sell equity rather than directly sell VVV tokens. Although VVV has surged by over 700% this year, Venice has not sold any tokens and currently holds over 30 million VVV, representing more than 37.5% of the total supply of 80 million.
Investors in this round received an 8.98% equity stake, a vesting grant of 1.5 million VVV tokens, and the right to purchase 5 million VVV tokens over the next 8 years. If all options are exercised, Venice’s total funding raised will increase to $131.5 million. The relevant tokens will be locked for one year and then unlocked linearly over the following three years, with an estimated average daily increase in circulating supply of less than 6,000 tokens. Venice stated that it will continue to maintain its token economic model of repurchasing and burning VVV tokens using revenue.
11:07
Svmuu News: According to Gate data, WTI crude oil futures have fallen 2.00% intraday and are currently trading at $68.11 per barrel. (Jin Shi)
10:52
Svmuu News: According to data from MSX.COM, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 5%, with Micron (MU.O) down more than 8%, Intel (INTC.O) down more than 7%, Arm (ARM.O) down 6%, and NVIDIA (NVDA.O) down 2.6%.
10:46
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket “World Cup Round of 16: USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina” handicap prediction event, the account hot2trot (address: 0xb61b2079b95f6b7476fd3203e0274ffb93308a06) held $272,500 on Bosnia and Herzegovina receiving a 1.5-goal handicap against the United States. This address has generated total profits of approximately $628,800, with profits of approximately $543,100 over the past 7 days.
The Svmuu Seer channel continuously monitors prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
10:45
Svmuu News: According to data from MSX.COM, Meta Platforms (META.O) rose more than 10% during intraday trading.
Earlier reports indicated that META is building a cloud business to sell excess AI computing power.
10:28
Svmuu News: Venice AI announced the completion of a $65 million Series A funding round led by Dragonfly, with participation from Coinbase Ventures, North Island Ventures, and others, valuing the company at $1 billion. The company’s core business is providing a platform that enables users to access over 200 AI models while ensuring privacy.
10:18
Svmuu News: According to OKX market data, BTC has broken through 60,000 USDT and is currently trading at 60,006.2 USDT, up 1.84% over the past 24 hours.
10:17
Svmuu News: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls data will be released early at 20:30 Beijing Time on July 2. U.S. stock markets will be closed for one day on July 3. CME Group Trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, U.S. Treasury bonds, and stock index futures contracts on the platform will close early at 01:00 Beijing Time on July 4. Trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange will close early at 01:30 Beijing Time on July 4.
10:03
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Chairman Wash: Dot plots will remain in place, at least for the time being. (Jin Shi)
09:54
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Chairman Wash: It’s no secret that I would like to see the balance sheet of Federal Reserve shrink.
During my first four weeks at Federal Reserve, my view on the balance sheet has not changed.
I hope that interest rate policy will become a key policy tool. (Jin Shi)
09:47
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Chairman Wash said Wednesday that both inflation expectations and inflation risks have declined in recent weeks; at the same time, he reiterated that Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target.
“In the first few weeks of this period, inflation expectations have moderated, and inflation risks have consequently decreased,” Wash said. “If anyone in households, the business community, or financial markets believes that Federal Reserve would be content with inflation above the 2% target—well, I’m afraid they’re in for a disappointment: We will ensure price stability in the United States.” (Jin Shi)
09:46
Svmuu News: White House Spokesperson: “We have paved the way for Iran’s denuclearization.” (Jin Shi)
09:44
Svmuu News: Serenity, known as the “White-Haired Stock Guru,” posted on X stating that reports claiming Meta cut capital expenditures due to “overbuilding” are highly misleading. Meta only sells computing power when there is excess capacity, and the current situation appears to be the opposite.
Hyperscalers such as Google reduced their computing power allocations to Meta in March due to capacity constraints, as Meta’s internal projects were consuming excessive resources. Meta immediately faced computing power constraints and was forced to sign massive contracts worth over $48 billion with Neoclouds such as CoreWeave and Nebius.
Meta only sells computing power when there is excess capacity, especially since its large contracts with Neoclouds are mostly take-or-pay agreements. Serenity expects Meta’s capital expenditure guidance to rise as it builds more independent capacity.
09:41
Svmuu News: According to Gate data, spot gold has surged another $30 in the short term, breaking above $4,070 per ounce, with a gain of 1.58% on the day. Spot silver has risen by more than $1 today and is currently trading at $59.58 per ounce, up 1.75%.
09:38
Svmuu News: Jane Foley, an analyst at Rabobank, said speculation is mounting that Japanese authorities may take advantage of thin trading volumes on Friday—a U.S. holiday—to intervene in the yen market. In fact, it would be more surprising if Japanese authorities took no action at all.
She noted that further intervention appears inevitable, but intervention alone is unlikely to be sufficient to alter the market’s negative sentiment toward the yen. The yen’s weakness stems in part from a stronger U.S. dollar, but the rise in the Japanese stock market may prompt foreign investors to strengthen their hedging against the risk of a falling yen. (Jinshi)

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