Svmuu News On-chain analysis models indicate that Bitcoin's current network selling pressure has dropped to a cycle low, with the market clearly in an accumulation phase. The Sell-side Risk Ratio last triggered a "distribution signal" in December 2024, when Bitcoin's price was around $107,000, and this signal has not reappeared since.
Data shows the current selling pressure level has fallen to about one-sixth of the cycle average, with related metrics even revisiting levels seen during the 2022–2023 bear market (when BTC price was around $16,000 to $20,000). The model divides this cycle into two phases: first, a "strong distribution phase" from November to December 2024, with prices ranging from $64,000 to $107,000; second, the current re-entry into an "accumulation phase".
The Sell-side Risk Ratio measures the activity of market participants taking profits relative to the network's cost basis. When the indicator exceeds the adaptive upper threshold, it triggers a distribution signal, indicating seller dominance; when it falls below the lower threshold, it triggers an accumulation signal, meaning selling pressure is extremely low. Data shows the distribution signal in this cycle lasted 37 days, covering BTC's main rally from $64,000 to $107,000. Since the signal turned off on December 17, 2024, the market has gone approximately 449 consecutive days without a distribution signal reappearing.
Meanwhile, the 180-day rolling average of the Sell-side Risk Ratio has dropped from 3210 to 1913 over the past 60 days, a decrease of 1297 points, and continues to decline at a rate of about 20 points per day. Historically, the 1500 to 2000 range typically corresponds to selling pressure levels seen in 2019 (BTC ~$3000–$6000) and the mid-phase of the 2022–2023 bear market (BTC ~$16,000–$20,000). However, the current BTC price remains in the ~$67,000 to $72,000 range, showing a clear structural divergence.
The analysis points out that this means early low-cost accumulators have completed large-scale profit-taking in the $64,000 to $107,000 range, while holders who did not sell in that range are currently choosing to continue holding. The model suggests that a new distribution signal is only likely to be triggered again when Bitcoin's price stabilizes above $100,000 to $110,000 accompanied by large-scale profit-taking.
Overall, on-chain indicators show the distribution phase of this cycle has ended, and the market has re-entered an accumulation state. The model's current overall assessment of the market is "neutral leaning towards accumulation," but warns that without new price catalysts, the market could face a prolonged period of consolidation. (Axeladlerjr)