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Stanford Study Claims Polymarket’s “Five-Minute” Bitcoin Betting Market Allowed Suspected Manipulators to Profit $8.2 Million
Svmuu News: Researchers at Stanford University have discovered signs of manipulation in Polymarket’s five-minute betting market at Bitcoin. The study analyzed contract data spanning approximately two months and found recurring one-way trading spikes on Binance that briefly influenced prices at Bitcoin in the seconds before the betting period ended, benefiting those with aligned positions.Researchers termed this pattern “temporary manipulation to inflate spot prices” and pointed out a structural vulnerability in such contracts: participants can influence outcomes by trading the underlying asset itself, which determines the outcome of the trade.A Polymarket spokesperson stated that the platform uses multiple independent price oracles to ensure accuracy and plans to transition some markets next year to a settlement method with longer time windows to enhance market integrity. The study estimates that suspected manipulators profited approximately $8.2 million over two months, primarily at the expense of retail investors.
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