Svmuu News: QCP Capital released a macroeconomic report stating that the most notable feature of this week’s market was growing divergence, with situations arising in the oil, interest rate, and crypto financing sectors where “news points in one direction, while underlying conditions point in another.”
Regarding oil, the peace agreement has hit a crisis, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since late May. However, Saudi Arabia is readjusting its pricing, and OPEC+ has once again raised production quotas, indicating signs of recovery on the supply side. On the interest rate front, Federal Reserve Governor Waller has adopted a clearly hawkish stance, but U.S. consumer demand is weakening, and revolving credit has turned contractionary after growing by more than 10% year-over-year in April.
In the crypto market, Strategy has adjusted its funding strategy, increasing its USD reserves through a stock offering, but has not sold its BTC holdings. QCP Capital believes that the key issue in the current market is which side—the surface-level narrative or the underlying capital flows and supply-demand dynamics—will be repriced first when they diverge significantly.