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Probability Drops to Historic Low; Outlook for the CLARITY Act to Become Law in 2026 Turns Bearish
Svmuu News: Trading sentiment regarding the “CLARITY Act” passing into law in 2026 has turned bearish, with the probability of the bill becoming law this year falling to a historic low. Market expectations for the bill peaked at 82% earlier this year but have continued to decline as negotiations have hit multiple impasses. Key disagreements hindering the bill’s progress include a stalemate over ethical provisions, opposition from banking lobby groups to provisions regarding interest on stablecoins, and a compressed window for deliberation and voting due to a tight congressional schedule and the approaching midterm elections. Although leading industry players generally support this comprehensive digital asset regulatory bill, traders believe that these multiple disagreements cannot be resolved in the short term, and it is highly unlikely that the bill will complete the entire legislative process and officially take effect within 2026.
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