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3/22
20:55
Opinion: If a single trader can manipulate the outcome of a prediction market, that market should not be listed for trading
Svmuu News As prediction market platforms like Polymarket gain mainstream attention during the US election cycle and geopolitical events, their prices are increasingly cited as real-time signals. However, this premise fails when contracts create economic incentives for participants to change the very outcomes they are meant to measure.
The core issue lies in product design, not volatility. When a single outcome can be achieved by a single actor through a single action, the contract transforms from a prediction tool into an execution script. The article cites the example of betting on a field invasion during the Super Bowl, pointing out that traders who bet "Yes" have personally carried out the action, a scenario that has already occurred in reality.
Political and event-based markets are particularly vulnerable, as they often rely on discrete nodes that can be influenced at low cost and have relatively thin liquidity. If participants begin to suspect that outcomes are being artificially manufactured, the platform loses credibility. The article argues that sports markets, due to their high visibility, multi-layered governance, and multi-party participation structure, are harder to manipulate at an individual level and should serve as a structural reference point.
Prediction market platforms should establish clear listing standards, excluding contracts that can be manipulated by a single participant at low cost or that constitute a bounty for harm. Otherwise, external regulation will intervene.
20:46
BIS Executive Skeptical of Stablecoins Appointed as Governor of the Bank of Korea
Svmuu News South Korean President Lee Jae-myung nominated Shin Hung-song, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), as the Governor of the Bank of Korea on March 22. Shin Hung-song stated last August that the Korean won stablecoin is "a shortcut that effectively bypasses existing foreign exchange controls," potentially opening channels for capital flight. He has already resigned from his position at BIS immediately following the nomination.
Previously, Lee Jae-myung had listed the issuance of the Korean won stablecoin as a core campaign issue. However, the Bank of Korea has consistently blocked the advancement of related legislation, and several major Korean technology companies have been waiting for the stablecoin policy to be finalized for months. A report released by the BIS last year pointed out that stablecoins do not possess the functions of stable currency and may pose risks to financial stability and monetary sovereignty. Industry insiders stated that Shin Hung-song's stance on stablecoins after taking office will be closely watched.
20:40
Machi Big Brother's ETH long positions liquidated again, cumulative losses exceed $30.35 million
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Machi Big Brother's (@machibigbrother) 25x leveraged ETH long positions have been fully liquidated once again. Shortly after, he opened new 25x leveraged ETH long positions. Currently, his wallet balance is only $32,000, with cumulative losses exceeding $30.35 million.
20:39
Spot Gold Falls Below $4,400 Mark
According to Gate data, spot gold has fallen below the key $4,400 per ounce level, currently trading at $4,386.96, representing an intraday decline of 2.39%.
20:39
Bitcoin Miners' Mining Costs Reach $88,000
Svmuu According to Checkonchain's difficulty-based cost model data, the average production cost for Bitcoin miners is approximately $88,000, while the current market price is around $69,200, resulting in an average loss margin of about 21%. Bitcoin previously fell from $126,000 to below $70,000. The recent surge in oil prices above $100 has further increased electricity costs, and the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz has tightened global oil and gas supply expectations, exacerbating cost pressures on miners.
On the network level, mining difficulty decreased by 7.76% in the latest adjustment to 133.79 trillion, one of the largest declines this year, representing a drop of about 10% from the beginning of the year. Hash rate has fluctuated between approximately 900 and 950 EH/s, below the 1 EH/s milestone reached in 2025, with the average block time extending to about 12 minutes and 36 seconds. Hash price hovers around $33 per PH/s, close to the breakeven point for most mining machines.
Currently, about 43% of the Bitcoin supply is in a state of loss. When mining revenue cannot cover operational costs, miners typically sell Bitcoin to cover expenses, increasing selling pressure in the market. Several listed mining companies, including Marathon Digital and Cipher Mining, are shifting resources towards AI and high-performance computing businesses. Bitdeer has reduced its Bitcoin holdings to zero, and Core Scientific plans to sell a significant portion of its inventory to fund AI-related infrastructure construction. The next difficulty adjustment is expected in early April; if current conditions persist, a further downward adjustment is possible.
20:25
Asia-Pacific and European stock markets plummet
Svmuu News European stock index futures extended losses, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures falling 1.1% and German DAX futures dropping 1.2%.
The Korea Exchange activated a circuit breaker for the KOSPI index after KOSPI 200 futures fell 5%, halting program trading for 5 minutes.
The Nikkei 225 index's decline widened to 4%. (Jin10 Data APP)
20:07
The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in April is 87.6%, while the probability of a rate hike is 12.4%
Svmuu News According to CME's "FedWatch Tool": The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 12.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 87.6%. The probability of the Fed implementing a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike by June is 21.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 1.6%, and the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 76.5%. (Jin10)
17:06
BTC Falls Below 68,000 USDT, 24H Drop 3.51%
Svmuu News: According to OKX market data, BTC has fallen below 68,000 USDT and is currently trading at 67,979.7 USDT, marking a 24-hour decline of 3.51%.
13:38
SIREN futures surge over 50% in short term, breaking above $4.8
Svmuu News: Market data shows that the price of SIREN futures briefly surged above $4.8 and is currently trading at $3.3, representing a short-term increase of over 50%.
Svmuu reminds users that market volatility is high; please be aware of the risks.
10:57
Bessent said "50 days of price increases can be exchanged for 50 years of a nuclear-free Iran"
Svmuu News U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated: "I think the American people understand that after experiencing 50 days—I don't want to be too rigid about the timeframe, but let's just say 50 days—of temporary price increases, prices will eventually fall back; and in return, we will gain 50 years of peace, meaning an Iranian regime without nuclear weapons. Thanks to President Trump, the American people are beginning to grasp this principle: without security, there can be no prosperity." When asked if this means prices will start to fall back after 50 days, Bessent said: "I was just giving an offhand example. I don't know if it will be exactly 30 days, 50 days, or 100 days, but it can be exchanged for 50 years of peace in the Middle East and a weakened Iranian regime." (NBC News)
10:31
Iran Proposes Four Measures in Response to Trump's Threat
According to Iranian media reports on the 22nd, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that if U.S. President Trump's threat to attack Iranian power plants is carried out, Iran will immediately take four measures. These include completely closing the Strait of Hormuz, striking all power plants, energy, and information technology facilities in Israel, completely destroying all U.S.-owned companies in the Middle East region, and attacking power plants in Middle Eastern countries that host U.S. military bases. (Xinhua News Agency)
10:30
SIREN Controller Consolidates 484.6 Million SIREN Tokens, Holding Value of $1.04 Billion with 47x Profit
According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the price of SIREN has risen from $0.08 to $2.1 within a month and a half. In the past few hours, the SIREN controller has consolidated tokens representing 66.5% of the total supply from hundreds of wallets into 48 wallets, totaling 484.6 million SIREN tokens valued at $1.04 billion. These tokens were purchased around the end of June 2025 at approximately $0.045 each, with an initial cost of about $21.8 million. The current holding value has increased 47-fold.
10:20
0xSun: AI Industry Leads in Popularity, but Crypto Still Holds Advantages in Value Distribution
Svmuu News: Trader 0xSun posted on platform X, stating that the current popularity and resource concentration in the AI industry are significantly higher than in Crypto, but their positioning differs. He pointed out that although sectors like NFT and GameFi have not met expectations, Crypto has found practical applications in areas such as cross-border stablecoin payments, RWA, and BTC.
He believes that compared to the traditional tech industry, Crypto offers greater openness in its value distribution mechanism, allowing ordinary users to potentially benefit from early participation in projects, whereas the benefits of the AI industry are more concentrated among leading institutions and talent.
Furthermore, he stated that he will currently focus on investment opportunities related to both Crypto and AI, gradually expanding into areas like AI and U.S. stocks while maintaining attention on the crypto industry.
10:02
Bounce launches its latest ecosystem product, Bounce Predict, positioned as a prediction market for auction scenarios
Svmuu reported that Bounce announced on platform X the official launch of Bounce Predict. The platform has currently opened a prediction market for Sotheby's upcoming auction, allowing users to use USDT to predict auction outcomes.
09:47
An account holds $58.588 million in short positions, with cumulative floating profits exceeding $6.6 million
Svmuu News According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, UnRektCapital (0x007...67a0) has become the second-largest short position holder for Hyperliquid BTC. After adding to its position this morning, this address now holds 616 BTC worth of 40x leveraged short positions, valued at $42.29 million, with an entry price of $72,144. It currently has a floating profit of $2.15 million. Additionally, this address has also shorted HYPE, TRUMP, and SILVER, bringing its total short position value to $58.588 million, while holding a long position in BRENTOIL worth $5.46 million. Currently, all five of its positions are in a floating profit state, with cumulative floating profits exceeding $6.6 million.
09:16
Michael Saylor Releases Bitcoin Tracker Information Again, May Disclose Accumulation Data Next Week
Svmuu News: Michael Saylor, founder of Bitcoin treasury company MicroStrategy, has once again released information related to the Bitcoin Tracker, with the caption: "The Orange March Continues." Based on previous patterns, MicroStrategy typically discloses its Bitcoin accumulation data on the day following the release of such related messages.
09:15
SIREN rises above 2 USDT, up 131% in 24H
Svmuu News: Market data shows that SIREN has risen above 2 USDT, currently trading at 2.11 USDT, up 131% in 24 hours.
08:38
Ju.com's 9th Meme Launch Project APEACE Surges Over 37 Billion Times; 10th Project HAJIME Subscription Opens at 16:00 on March 23
Svmuu News: Following the launch of the 9th project SMOKE in Ju.com's "Meme Ten-Phase Launch Plan", its price rapidly increased, reaching a high of 37,650 USDT. This represents an increase of over 37 billion times compared to its launch subscription price of 0.000001 USDT. For this phase's APEACE, there is no lock-up period after the subscription asset settlement. The tokens are delivered as spot assets, allowing users to choose to sell or withdraw them immediately.
The subscription for the 10th project APEACE in Ju.com's "Meme Ten-Phase Launch Plan" will open at 16:00 on March 23 and close at 16:00 on March 24. The platform will complete the settlement within 4 hours after the subscription ends and conduct the TGE at 20:00 on March 24, opening the HAJIME/JU trading pair. For this phase, users can still participate in the subscription using JU, USDT, BTC, or ETH. The platform will uniformly calculate and allocate based on a U.S. dollar standard. Additionally, successfully inviting friends to participate allows users to share in a reward pool of 20% of the final token issuance and obtain a 100% chance of winning.
08:32
USR has now rebounded to 0.577 USDT
Svmuu News Market data shows that USR has now rebounded to 0.577 USDT, having previously depegged and fallen to a low of 0.053 USDT.
08:27
Data: Vietnam Leads Globally with 17.2% of Population Holding Bitcoin
Svmuu News According to data on the countries with the highest proportion of Bitcoin holders relative to their population, Vietnam leads at 17.2%, followed by Argentina at 15.2%, Turkey at 14.0%, the United States at 13.5%, and Ukraine at 10.5%. (Bitcoin News)
08:19
Boyaa Interactive Plans to Invest Nearly $70 Million in Cryptocurrency Purchases
Svmuu News Boyaa Interactive (00434) announced that the Board of Directors proposes to seek shareholder approval to grant a purchase authorization, allowing the company to use idle cash reserves generated from business operations for potential cryptocurrency purchases within the next 12 months, with a total amount not exceeding $70 million. This move aims to seize opportunities during the downturn in the cryptocurrency market, appropriately expand cryptocurrency allocation, and further support the company's Web3 business development.
As of the announcement date, the company holds a total of 4,092 Bitcoins, with an average unit price of approximately $68,200; a total of 302 Ether, with an average unit price of approximately $1,661; and approximately 7,000,700 Tether purchased. The Board plans to conduct these cryptocurrency purchases on regulated trading platforms to ensure market liquidity and security.
08:04
Prime Minister says will directly strike leaders of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
Svmuu News On March 22 local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in the southern city of Arad that Israel is responding to attacks from Iran, but not targeting civilians. Netanyahu said that Israel's targets are the current Iranian regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and that the Israeli military will directly strike the leaders of the IRGC as well as their infrastructure and economic assets. (CCTV News)
07:22
Svmuu Evening Brief
1. Analysis: Energy Crisis Squeezes Bitcoin Mining Profits; If Miners Struggle to Bear Pressure, It Could Trigger a New Round of BTC Selling;
2. Iranian Parliament Speaker Responds to Trump's "Ultimatum" to Open the Strait of Hormuz;
3. A Whale Bought 8,662 ETH Worth $18.05 Million Over the Past Month;
4. Two DeFi Protocol Attackers Bought a Total of $28.56 Million Worth of ETH Today;
5. Stablecoin USR Has Now Depegged by 93.72%, Currently Quoted at 0.053 USDT;
6. Hong Kong Sees a Billion-Dollar Gold Robbery; Police Arrest 5 and Recover 73 Kilograms of Gold Bars;
7. 20th Anniversary of Twitter's First Tweet; Its NFT Once Sold for Over $2.91 Million;
8. Fluid: USR Market Has Been Suspended, Will Fully Compensate for Any Potential Bad Debt Losses.
07:20
National Internet Emergency Center and Others Release OpenClaw Secure Usage Practice Guide
Svmuu News To help users safely use OpenClaw, the National Internet Emergency Center and the China Cyberspace Security Association jointly released the OpenClaw Secure Usage Practice Guide on March 22. The guide provides security protection recommendations for general users, enterprise users, cloud service providers, and technical developers. Recommendations for general users include: installing OpenClaw on dedicated devices, virtual machines, or containers with proper environment isolation, and avoiding installation on daily office computers; not running OpenClaw with administrator or superuser privileges; not storing or processing private data within the OpenClaw environment; and promptly updating to the latest version of OpenClaw. For cloud service providers, recommendations include conducting security assessments and hardening at the foundational security level of cloud hosts; deploying and integrating security protection capabilities; and implementing supply chain and data security protection. (Xinhua News Agency)
07:01
Iranian Parliament Speaker Responds to Trump's "Ultimatum" to Open Strait of Hormuz
According to a report by Xinhua News Agency, in response to U.S. President Trump's "ultimatum" demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated on the 22nd that once Iran's infrastructure, such as power plants, becomes a target, all important energy and oil facilities in the entire Middle East region will be considered legitimate targets and face irreversible destruction, leading to long-term increases in oil prices. On the evening of the 21st, Trump posted on social media, demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, otherwise, he would launch strikes and destroy Iran's "various power plants." (Xinhua News Agency)
06:54
Joe Tsai: The Ultimate Goal of AI Development Is Not Just to Develop Cutting-Edge Models, but to Promote the Widespread Adoption of AI Applications
Svmuu News According to Joe Tsai, Chairman of Alibaba Group, the vast potential of AI in China lies at the application layer. The ultimate goal of AI development is not merely to create cutting-edge models, but to promote the widespread adoption of AI applications and benefit society. In August 2025, the State Council issued an opinion on further implementing the "AI+" initiative, proposing that by 2030, AI will comprehensively empower high-quality development in China. The adoption rate of applications such as next-generation smart terminals and agents will exceed 90%, and the intelligent economy will become a significant growth driver for China's economic development, promoting technological inclusivity and shared benefits. "Over the past year, Alibaba has also made a fundamental judgment. The widespread application of AI across various scenarios will create enormous market opportunities. Our only direction is continuous innovation," he said. (The Paper)
06:36
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: If Iran's power plants and infrastructure are attacked, international oil prices will remain high for a long period
Svmuu News: Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated that once our country's power plants and infrastructure are attacked, key infrastructure, energy facilities, and oil facilities across the entire region will be considered legitimate targets and suffer irreversible destruction. At that time, international oil prices will remain high for a long period. (Jin10)
06:34
A whale purchased 8,662 ETH over the past month, valued at $18.05 million
Svmuu News According to Lookonchain monitoring, 8 hours ago, a whale purchased an additional 1,979 ETH, valued at $4.14 million. Over the past month, this whale has accumulated a total of 8,662 ETH, with a total value reaching $18.05 million.
06:13
A whale transferred 50 million SKY to Binance, making a profit of $2.72 million
Svmuu News According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a whale (0x6c24...3f14) withdrew 97.13 million SKY from Binance in November last year when the SKY price was low, at an average price of $0.048. Today, the whale transferred 50 million SKY to Binance, valued at $3.8 million, at a transfer price of $0.076. Currently, the whale has realized a profit of $2.72 million, with a return rate of 58%.
05:45
Fluid: USR Market Has Been Suspended, Will Fully Cover Any Potential Bad Debt Losses
Svmuu News: Fluid posted on X platform stating that the team is aware of the incident affecting Resolv earlier today. Fluid's automatic cap function prevented excessive borrowing of funds, and the USR market has been suspended. These protective measures worked as intended to control the situation. If there is any remaining bad debt on Fluid, all user losses will be fully covered. User funds and protocol security are the top priority. The team is conducting a comprehensive review and will share a detailed incident analysis report once the investigation is complete.

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