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4/12
07:30
Svmuu Evening Brief
1. Robinhood excludes certain prediction market contracts due to concerns over market manipulation and insider trading risks;
2. X Product Lead: Reduces aggregated account revenue share to 60%, will cut another 20% next week and crack down on clickbait;
3. Iran's Deputy Parliament Speaker: The Strait of Hormuz is a "red line" and is entirely under Iran's control;
4. Justin Sun: Condemns the ongoing token scandal created by bad actors within WLFI;
5. Former Vice President of Bank of China, Wang Yongli: Views US crypto asset policy dialectically;
6. Analyst: Current short-term BTC trading is difficult, recommends regular investors focus on dollar-cost averaging;
7. Argentina includes cryptocurrencies in the net asset scope for qualified investors;
8. Analysis: The probability of the US and Iran reaching a consensus on core demands is not low;
9. CryptoQuant Analyst: If the US-Iran conflict persists and impacts inflation, it may force the Fed to raise interest rates in response;
10. Analyst: Bitcoin and Ethereum approach key price levels, potentially signaling a market trend reversal.
07:14
American musician G.Love loses 5.92 BTC after downloading fake Ledger app from Apple App Store
Svmuu News American musician G.Love from Philadelphia posted on platform X, stating that while replacing his computer and reconfiguring his Ledger, he mistakenly downloaded a malicious counterfeit application from the Apple App Store, resulting in the theft of his retirement funds. Approximately 5.92 bitcoins were transferred out within a short period. On-chain investigator ZachXBT subsequently indicated that the stolen funds have been tracked and pointed out that the related assets have completed their money laundering path transfer through deposit addresses of a CEX. ZachXBT also questioned Apple's App Store review mechanism, stating that the Apple platform has issues allowing counterfeit apps to be listed, further amplifying user asset security risks. The incident has once again drawn market attention to wallet security and application ecosystem review mechanisms.
07:02
Analyst: Failure of US-Iran Talks Could Provide Further Upside Momentum for the Dollar
Svmuu News: Senior strategist Fiona Lim from Maybank stated that the market might be somewhat disappointed by the failure of the US-Iran talks, but this outcome was not entirely unexpected. The US dollar may gain further upward momentum at the start of trading on Monday. Some Asian currencies, particularly those of net energy importers such as the South Korean won, Philippine peso, Japanese yen, and Thai baht, had already begun to weaken last Friday and may continue to face pressure this week. (Jin10)
07:00
enai.bnb transferred 41,025 RAVE from Aster two days ago and is now the TOP9 holder on the BSC network
Svmuu News According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, enai.bnb bought 46,336.76 tokens at an average price of $0.4556 on the second day of RAVE's launch and held them until 48 days ago, when all tokens were transferred into Aster (when the token price was $0.39), with an unknown purpose; then, 2 days ago, 41,025 tokens were transferred out from Aster, and he is now the TOP9 holder on the BSC network. If he had not sold at that time, his return rate would have been as high as 462%, with a floating profit of $86,000.
06:58
TRUMP Whales Gather Early, Withdraw Tokens from CEXs; US Senators Launch Conflict of Interest Inquiry
Svmuu According to Svmuu, as U.S. President Donald Trump's planned crypto-themed dinner approaches, some whales are continuously accumulating TRUMP tokens. Among them, address "8DHkza" recently withdrew approximately 850,500 TRUMP (worth about $2.4 million) from Bybit, while another address "7EtuAt" withdrew around 105,000 tokens from Binance, currently holding roughly 1.13 million tokens (worth about $3.2 million). On-chain data indicates that large outflows from exchanges are often seen as a signal of long-term holding or accumulation, potentially reducing short-term selling pressure.
This capital inflow occurred ahead of a private dinner exclusive to the top 297 token holders, with the top 29 qualifying for VIP status. Despite signs of token concentration, the TRUMP price remains around $2.80, near its historical lows.
Simultaneously, U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Adam Schiff, and Richard Blumenthal have sent letters to relevant entities, demanding disclosure of whether Trump was involved in the event's preparation and if any benefits were obtained. They stated that Congress needs to assess potential conflict of interest issues. Against the backdrop of political scrutiny and weak price performance, the token faces dual uncertainties from both regulatory and market perspectives. (CoinD)
06:55
ETH falls below 2200 USDT, down 1.83% in 24H
According to OKX market data, ETH has fallen below 2200 USDT and is currently trading at 2199.64 USDT, down 1.83% in the past 24 hours.
06:35
Analyst: Failed US-Iran Talks Could Lead to Renewed Oil Price Rise, Risk Sentiment May Be Hit Again
Svmuu News Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank, stated that the inconclusive outcome of the US-Iran talks represents a step backward. For the market, this means that the previous easing trade is likely to fade. Oil prices may rise again, and risk sentiment will once again be hit. The Strait of Hormuz, even if not completely closed, will remain a real and critical chokepoint risk. However, given the significant gap in positions between the two sides on nuclear safeguards and the Strait of Hormuz issue, this is not entirely unexpected. For the US dollar, this means it may regain some safe-haven support, but unless new military escalation occurs, it is unlikely to trigger a full-scale surge. Gold might benefit from renewed geopolitical hedging demand, but the market is not yet ready to fully return to the worst-case inflation shock scenario. (Jin10)
06:23
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Long-Term Holdings Continue to Grow, Signaling Strengthening Market Speculation Cooling
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the Bitcoin market is currently entering an early stabilization phase, with long-term holding behavior gradually strengthening, indicating a potential shift in market structure.
Data shows that since October, the number of BTC held for over one year has increased from approximately 12 million to about 12.4 million. Although the growth remains moderate, it reflects a market behavior tilting towards long-term holding. Since mid-December, the 30-day change has consistently remained positive, suggesting investors are more inclined to continue holding rather than distributing their holdings.
Darkfost pointed out that this change typically signifies the market is gradually transitioning from a speculation-dominated phase to a phase with stronger long-term conviction. In historical cycles, the proportion of long-term holdings usually declines significantly at market peaks and gradually recovers during bear markets. Therefore, the current trend can be viewed as an early signal of market stabilization.
However, he also emphasized that this indicator reflects long-term dimensional changes, which usually require a considerable amount of time to form a clear trend, and the current situation is still in its early stages.
06:17
Binance Life Market Cap Surpasses $150 Million, 24H Increase of 15.47%
According to data from GMGN, the market cap of Binance Life has surpassed $150 million, currently reported at $153.47 million, with a 24-hour increase of 15.47%.
Svmuu reminds users that Meme coin prices are highly volatile; investors are advised to participate cautiously.
06:07
Iran Responds to Trump: Blockading Iran Will Not "Open" the Strait of Hormuz
Svmuu News On the 12th, US President Trump reposted an article about a "naval blockade" of Iran on social media. The Iranian Embassy in Austria responded the same day, stating that a blockade cannot "open" the Strait of Hormuz. The embassy wrote on social media: "A simple note for those concerned: A blockade is a blockade. It cannot 'open' the Strait of Hormuz; it only restricts it. The only way out of this self-inflicted predicament is to remain open and flexible in negotiations. Follow reason." (Xinhua News Agency)
06:05
Security Experts: North Korea's "Open" Theft of Crypto Assets Has Become Its Financing Means
Svmuu According to security experts, as North Korea's infiltration and attacks targeting the crypto industry continue to escalate, the core difference between its hackers and those with backgrounds from other countries lies in the fact that crypto assets have become a crucial direct financing source for the country to sustain its military expenditures.
It is reported that in the recent months-long infiltration operation targeting Drift Protocol, North Korean hackers have once again caused a stir in the industry. Experts indicate that this model is not merely a "fund transfer tool" but rather a direct "predatory profit-seeking" method used to bypass international sanctions and obtain immediately usable hard currency funds.
Security researchers point out that unlike countries such as Russia and Iran, North Korea has almost no sustainable external economic or commodity export capabilities. Therefore, it relies more heavily on crypto theft as a core revenue source to support its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. Experts also emphasize that North Korean hacking targets have expanded from simple phishing to include exchanges, wallet services, and key permission holders of DeFi protocols, commonly employing long-cycle social engineering and identity impersonation infiltration tactics.
Due to the "once confirmed, irreversible" nature of blockchain transactions, the crypto industry is far weaker than the traditional financial system in terms of fund freezing and recovery, making such attacks more destructive in terms of speed and scale. Security personnel warn that this "long-term lurking + precise takeover" attack model has yet to be effectively addressed by the industry. (CoinDesk)
05:59
Google News Accidentally Displays Polymarket Prediction Market Results, Official Statement Attributes It to System Error
Svmuu News Some links to Polymarket's prediction markets briefly appeared in the search results of Google's news service, Google News, displayed alongside mainstream media news, but were subsequently removed. A spokesperson for Google stated that this display was a system error, saying, "The website was briefly shown in Google News in error and is no longer appearing."
It is reported that before being removed, some users found Polymarket's market prediction results also appearing below reports from mainstream media outlets like Reuters and The Guardian in event-driven searches. For example, queries related to "whether ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz" displayed both relevant news and betting market information. (Cointelegraph)
05:49
U.S. Senator Warns: CLARITY Act Should Be Passed Soon, Otherwise Regulatory Window May Close Until 2030
Svmuu News U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that the United States should not continue to delay the legislative process of the CLARITY Act, otherwise it may take nearly four years to advance the improvement of the cryptocurrency industry's regulatory framework again. She posted on social platform X, saying, "This is our last chance to pass the CLARITY Act until at least 2030," and emphasized, "We cannot put America's financial future at risk." The bill aims to provide a clearer regulatory structure for the crypto industry, defining the responsibilities of regulatory agencies to promote industry innovation and market development. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, there are market concerns that congressional priorities may shift, thereby slowing down the legislative process.
Former White House AI and Crypto Affairs Director David Sacks also expressed support for advancing the bill as soon as possible, stating, "Now is the time for action," and predicting that the relevant market structure legislation would ultimately be signed into law by the President.
From the industry side, several individuals, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have recently called for accelerating the legislative process, believing that clear rules will foster innovation and increase market participation. On the regulatory side, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins also expressed support for advancing comprehensive market structure legislation to avoid ongoing regulatory uncertainty affecting industry development. (Cointelegraph)
05:29
Tether CEO: Centralized AI Is Unsustainable and Leads to a Dead End; We Should Return to User Autonomy
Svmuu News: Paolo Ardoino, CEO of stablecoin issuer Tether, posted on platform X, stating that "AI should be open like freedom." He believes the development path of centralized AI has reached a "dead end." Against the backdrop of large tech companies continuing to build closed AI systems, Tether is pushing in the opposite direction. Through QVAC, it is exploring solutions for running AI models on local devices, enabling users to control their own data and computing power. This model aligns more closely with the core concept of "self-custody" in the crypto industry, meaning users should have autonomy over their data and computational resources.
05:16
A multi-signature address withdrew 31.93 million RAVE from a CEX over the past two days, and its asset value has surged to $89.1 million
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, the multi-signature address 0x0A1...790d7, which cumulatively withdrew 31.93 million RAVE from Bitget over the past two days, has seen its asset value surge from $37.54 million to $89.1 million, effectively 'printing' $50 million in two days. As of April 8th, this batch of tokens was only worth $8.52 million.
05:05
Iranian Parliament Speaker: The United States Has Understood Iran's Logic and Principles
Svmuu News: The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament stated that the Iranian delegation put forward forward-looking initiatives, but the other side ultimately failed to win the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations. The United States has understood Iran's logic and principles, and now it is time for them to decide whether they can win our trust. We appreciate Pakistan's efforts in promoting the progress of these negotiations. (Jin10)
05:02
Analyst: Bitcoin and Ethereum Approach Critical Price Levels, Possibly Signaling Market Trend Reversal
Svmuu News Macro analyst Jordi Visser stated that despite widespread market expectations of the crypto industry entering a bear market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are less than 10% away from key levels that could trigger a trend reversal. He pointed out that if Bitcoin breaks above $76,000 and Ethereum rises above $2,400, it could signal the start of a sustained uptrend lasting throughout the year.
Visser believes the probability of a US economic recession in the short term is low, a view also reflected in the pricing of prediction market Kalshi, which currently estimates the probability of a recession by 2026 at around 24%. He also noted that against a backdrop of persistently high inflation and a lack of clear growth momentum in traditional markets (such as the S&P 500), capital may continue to flow into asset classes with yield potential.
However, market views remain divided. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently suggested that Bitcoin's yearly low may not yet be in, and the price could retest or even fall below the $60,000 range. Visser emphasized that the market should not be simplistically categorized into bull or bear cycles, but rather judged from a longer-term structural and liquidity perspective. (Cointelegraph)
04:53
CryptoQuant Analyst: If US-Iran Conflict Persists, Inflation May Force Fed to Raise Interest Rates
Svmuu News CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, stating that the current US inflation structure has gradually become clearer. Although the March CPI data recorded the largest month-on-month increase since 2022, the core CPI remained largely unchanged, indicating that inflationary pressures have not yet spread comprehensively. This trend needs to be continuously monitored in subsequent PCE data and over the coming months. As long as this structure persists, it suggests that inflation has not yet become systemically embedded in the US economy and is more of a phased phenomenon, possibly related to geopolitical conflicts. However, if the US-Iran conflict lasts for an extended period, inflation may gradually evolve into a systemic risk and begin to impact economic growth. At that point, the Federal Reserve may have no choice but to respond by continuing to raise interest rates.
04:43
Robinhood Excludes Certain Prediction Market Contracts Due to Concerns Over Market Manipulation and Insider Trading Risks
Svmuu News Robinhood, while accelerating its expansion into prediction markets, has proactively excluded certain contract products due to concerns that they could facilitate market manipulation and insider trading risks. Jordan Sinclair, President of Robinhood UK, stated that the company is highly focused on market abuse issues and will not offer users all prediction markets or event contracts. Instead, it will selectively list products that are more suitable for its customers.
Recently, several instances of "precise betting" have raised regulatory concerns. For example, on Polymarket, unusually large bets appeared before the U.S. took action against Iran; Israeli regulators have also sued two individuals for using confidential information to participate in betting. Furthermore, "mention markets" (such as betting on words that will appear in a speech) are explicitly excluded from Robinhood's product offerings due to their susceptibility to manipulation.
Currently, Robinhood primarily provides compliant prediction market services through partnerships with Kalshi and ForecastEx, prioritizing regulated platforms to mitigate information misuse and cross-border compliance risks. In contrast, less regulated platforms like Polymarket allow users to trade via crypto wallets and have relatively lax identity verification processes.
Robinhood previously anticipated that prediction markets would become a significant growth engine. CEO Vlad Tenev stated that this business is expected to be one of the fastest-growing segments in 2025 and could potentially drive the formation of a trillion-dollar annual trading volume in the future. (Financial Times)
04:29
Analysis: The probability of the core demands of the US and Iran reaching consensus is not low
Svmuu News According to CITIC Securities, from the perspective of the US's core demands, if Iran can abandon uranium enrichment, it would become the most significant achievement of the war for the US and the greatest "accomplishment" that Trump could use to appease the domestic audience. This round of conflict has already generated substantial negative impacts on the midterm elections, necessitating an early exit. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the US has lost control over Iran's nuclear capabilities. Over the past few decades, successive US presidents have failed to resolve this issue, severely impacting the US's Middle East strategy. Compared to the immense political propaganda value of Iran's "nuclear abandonment achievement," the indirect link between oil prices and inflation likely has a smaller impact on elections. Therefore, the Trump administration might be willing to compromise on issues such as control over the Strait of Hormuz.
From the perspective of Iran's core demands, this war has proven that blockading the strait and threatening Middle Eastern infrastructure are extremely important bargaining chips, even more destructive and flexible than the threat of nuclear weapons. Compared to the extremely high cost and difficult-to-control scale of nuclear weapons, blockading the strait and attacking infrastructure only require low-cost drones to inflict significant damage on the US and the global economy, thereby forming Iran's tool for counterbalancing the US. The fact that both the US and Iran have repeatedly stopped short of the red line of large-scale infrastructure destruction also implies that the probability of extreme escalation of the war is not high, and the likelihood of extreme oil prices, severe recession, or stagflation is decreasing. (Jin10)

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