How Will Maduro's Departure Affect the Oil Market? A Roundup of Views from 12 Investment Banks
1. Citibank: It will take years for Venezuela to resume production; short-term supply tightness will support oil prices. 2. Saxo Bank: The narrative of oversupply overshadows geopolitical shocks; the situation in Venezuela is unlikely to significantly impact oil prices for now. 3. OCBC Bank: Given that Venezuela is not currently a major oil producer, its impact is likely to be limited. 4. UBS: We still expect Brent crude to be at $62 per barrel by the end of the first quarter, $65 by mid-year, and $67 by year-end.5. Capital Economics: We do not believe last weekend’s events will substantially alter the global oil market or, consequently, the global economic outlook. 6. ING: We still expect ample supply to keep prices down and maintain our forecast of an average Brent crude price of $57 per barrel for 2026.7.Goldman Sachs: The potential for long-term production growth in Venezuela further exacerbates the downside risks to our oil price forecasts for 2027 and beyond. 8.JPMorgan Chase: Venezuela’s oil production accounts for a very small share of global output, and it cannot rapidly increase production in the short term to contribute to global supply.9. Spartan Capital: Duro’s ouster is expected to pave the way for increased oil supply, but any price spike is likely to be short-lived. Therefore, we recommend selling oil on any rally.10. Westpac Bank: Over the next 12 to 18 months, Venezuelan crude oil production could increase by 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day. In the coming years, as the political situation stabilizes, production is expected to rise to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day.11. Brown Brothers Harriman: The short-term impact on oil prices is likely to be limited. In the long run, however, U.S. control over Venezuela could lead to lower oil prices. Rebuilding the country’s oil infrastructure could take years.12. Hargreaves Lansdown: The real issue affecting market trends lies in the medium-term implications. If sanctions are eased and significant capital flows back into the crumbling infrastructure, Venezuela could eventually contribute a substantial supply, but this will by no means be an overnight process.
Source:富途快讯 · Source Link
Disclaimer: This content reflects only the author’s personal views and does not constitute any investment or financial advice. If you discover any content that violates regulations,Click to Report
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