After a year of policy volatility, the U.S. economy is expected to benefit from the tax cuts in the “Donald Trump,” keeping the economic expansion on track in 2026. Economists say that thanks to the landmark bill signed by Donald Trump, U.S. taxpayers will receive larger tax refunds in the first half of this year, with the total increase projected to range from $30 billion to $100 billion.Incentives encouraging businesses to invest in plants and equipment may also boost growth, while lower borrowing costs and more stable trade policies should also help. Nevertheless, forecasters believe caution is still warranted.The U.S. attack on Venezuela also highlights the potential for geopolitical instability. “2026 looks set to be a year of modest performance—neither boom nor bust, just steady trend growth,” said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings. Federal Reserve Officials were slightly more optimistic than Wall Street at last month’s meeting, forecasting 2.3% GDP growth this year. Minutes released last week showed that Federal Reserve’s economic staff views fiscal policy, easing financial conditions, and the waning impact of tariffs as drivers of growth through 2028.