According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, the probabilities of the following four events on Polymarket—“Deng Yu will win the 2026 Fields Medal,” “Wang Hong will win the 2026 Fields Medal,” “ John Parden will win the 2026 Fields Medal,” and “Jacob Chimmelman will win the 2026 Fields Medal”—have risen sharply over the past week, with all currently standing at over 98%.
The 2026 International Congress of Mathematicians will convene on July 23 in Philadelphia, USA, at which time multiple awards, including the Fields Medal, will be announced. Recently, some netizens claimed that by analyzing the front-end code of the ICM 2026 official website schedule, they discovered that the above four individuals might be the winners; however, the list has not yet been officially confirmed. If Deng Yu and Wang Hong ultimately win, they will be the first Chinese mathematicians to receive the Fields Medal.
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Polymarket’s probability estimates for “Deng Yu, Wang Hong, John Parden, and Jacob Chimmelman winning the Fields Medal” have all risen to over 98%.
16/07/2026 03:01
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