Svmuu News: Serenity, known as the “White-Haired Stock Guru,” published an analysis stating that if Sivers secures approximately 10% of the wafer production capacity from contract manufacturer Win Semi through an asset-light model,assuming a 65% yield rate and an ASP of $50 to $75, annual revenue from its optical array products could reach $341 million to $512 million.Based on management’s target gross margin of 50% to over 60%, this would correspond to annual gross profit of approximately $205 million to $307 million.
Based on Sivers’ current market capitalization of approximately $1.1 billion, the price-to-gross-profit multiple under the above scenario is only about 3.6 to 5.4 times;If production capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit is expected to rise to $307 million to $461 million, further lowering the corresponding valuation multiple to 2.4 to 3.6 times.
Serenity notes that Sivers’ CEO has previously confirmed the company is collaborating with more foundries to expand production capacity, and since 2024, the scope of the company’s supply chain certifications has also been continuously expanding. As the co-packaged optics (CPO) market accelerates, future revenue guidance and production capacity plans may be further revised upward.
On the demand side, continuous-wave (CW) laser supply remains tight. Lumentum’s earnings report indicates that the company has begun sourcing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders; TrendForce data shows that AMD is securing relevant production capacity through long-term agreements.Serenity believes that as Sivers advances mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any new, certified independent production capacity is likely to be rapidly absorbed by the market.
Furthermore, a recent Morgan Stanley report has listed Sivers—with a market capitalization of approximately $1.1 billion—as one of the three core players in the CPO laser sector, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, both of which have market capitalizations exceeding $55 billion.Serenity believes that, in addition to its existing business, Sivers may expand its total addressable market (TAM) through mergers and acquisitions following its IPO on theNasdaq, replicating Lumentum’s growth path of acquiring Cloud Light to enter the full optical module and optical engine markets.