CNBC analysis points out that refining company stocks have performed strongly this year, with Marathon, Valero, and HF Sinclair all seeing gains of over 80%. The S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Sub-Industry Index has risen by 104% this year. However, the index is currently 41% above its 150-day moving average, a situation that has only occurred five times historically. In those five instances, the average return after six months was a negative 10.1%. The analysis suggests that the drivers of refining profits are geopolitical factors (conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia-Ukraine conflict), and these premiums are reversible. It recommends that investors engage in profit-taking.