UBS warns: German natural gas inventories fall to 17-year low of 48% for this time of year, gas prices may surge this winter, inflation faces upside risk
Simon Penn, a macro strategist at UBS in London, noted in a report released on Monday that Germany's natural gas storage facilities are currently only 48% full, significantly lower than 65% a year ago and 75% during the 2022 energy crisis, reaching their lowest level for this time of year in 17 years. UBS economist Felix Huefner expects Germany's gas storage rate to reach only 65% by November, well below the government's target of 80% and the EU's requirement of 90%. UBS believes that low inventory levels, limited regasification facility capacity, and low Rhine river levels will impose multiple constraints on Germany's restocking efforts. If a severe winter occurs this year, Europe's largest economy could face both soaring natural gas prices and supply shortages, potentially further pushing up eurozone inflation and dragging down German economic growth.
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