Goldman Sachs analysts warn: The rise in long-end US government bond yields is mainly due to structural oversupply, with the 10-year US Treasury approaching 4.8% and the 30-year having broken through key resistance.
Rich Privorotsky, head of the Goldman Sachs Delta-one trading desk, pointed out that the current round of rising long-term interest rates is increasingly a supply problem, rather than a central bank policy problem. Massive sovereign deficits, coupled with AI capital expenditures potentially exceeding $1 trillion annually, are largely financed through debt markets, leading to too much "paper" for the market to digest. Analysts warn that once interest rate volatility truly spikes, the stock market's adjustment could be far greater than current market pricing, while the implied volatility of S&P 500 options is currently still at its lowest level since January.
Source:华尔街见闻 · Source Link
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