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3/18
20:22
CICC: Fed Has Limited Room for Rate Cuts Amid "Quasi-Stagflation"
Svmuu News CICC's research report stated that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, aligning with market expectations. The dot plot and economic projections indicate upward revisions to inflation expectations and a narrowing scope for rate cuts, reflecting an overall cautious policy stance. Although Powell believes the uncertainty from oil price shocks is significant and the economy remains resilient, we consider the actual situation to be more complex. Tariffs and immigration policies have already imposed constraints on supply, and coupled with oil price shocks, the U.S. economy is entering a phase of "quasi-stagflation." Concurrently, risks in private credit are emerging, and financial conditions may tighten spontaneously. Against this backdrop, the Fed, constrained by sticky inflation in the short term, may continue to hold steady; in the medium term, as demand weakens or financial risks escalate, policy faces pressure to pivot passively towards rate cuts. We anticipate the Fed may maintain interest rates unchanged in the first half of the year, with a restart of rate cuts likely postponed to the second half. However, if rate cuts are a passive response to deteriorating economic or financial conditions, they are unlikely to boost market risk appetite. (Jin10)
20:09
Foreign Media: Trump Reportedly Considering Increasing Troop Deployment in the Middle East, While Assessing Ground Operation Options
Svmuu News A U.S. official and three informed sources stated that the Trump administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to bolster its military operations in the Middle East. These deployments could provide Trump with more options as he weighs expanding operations. Sources indicated that securing the Strait of Hormuz might involve deploying U.S. ground forces along the Iranian coast. The Trump administration has also discussed deploying ground forces to Iran's Kharg Island and the possibility of sending U.S. troops to secure Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. A White House official said, "No decision has been made yet to send ground forces. The President is focused on achieving all the stated objectives of Operation 'Epic Fury'." Sources said the discussions about increasing troop levels are not limited to an amphibious readiness group and its attached Marine Expeditionary Unit (approximately 2,000 Marines) set to arrive in the Middle East next week. However, one source noted that the U.S. military will lose a portion of its forces due to the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier being sent to Greece for repairs following a fire. (Jin10)
20:06
Delphi Digital: Stablecoins May Impact Bank Interest Margin Models, Deposit Outflow Risks Draw Attention
Svmuu News Delphi Digital published an article stating that, compared to national security-level controversies, the potential impact of stablecoins on the traditional banking profit model is more direct. Currently, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is approximately 3.89%, while the interest rate on ordinary savings accounts is about 0.39%. Banks earn profits through the interest margin on deposits.
It pointed out that stablecoins are also backed by assets such as Treasury bonds, and issuers are exploring mechanisms to distribute returns to holders. If this model is adopted on a large scale, it could prompt funds to flow from the traditional banking system to stablecoins, thereby weakening banks' ability to obtain low-cost funds and provide credit.
19:14
Trump-affiliated company American Bitcoin holdings rise to 6,899 BTC, surpassing Galaxy
Svmuu News: American Bitcoin, associated with the Trump family, announced that its Bitcoin reserves have increased to approximately 6,899 BTC, successfully surpassing Galaxy Digital and rising to the 16th position in the corporate Bitcoin holdings ranking.
Data shows that the company recently added about 399 BTC. At the current price of approximately $71,000, its Bitcoin assets are valued at nearly $490 million.
Eric Trump stated on social media that the company has become "one of the fastest-growing Bitcoin reserve companies globally." Two weeks ago, American Bitcoin disclosed holdings of about 6,500 BTC, indicating rapid growth.
Furthermore, related data also shows that Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group currently holds approximately 9,500 BTC, ranking 13th among publicly listed companies.
19:12
Visa Launches CLI Tool to Enable AI Agents for Automated Payments
Svmuu News: Visa Crypto Labs has released a command-line tool (CLI) that allows AI agents to initiate secure, automated payments directly within terminal environments, marking a further step in the implementation of "AI-native payment" infrastructure.
The tool supports completing payments via text instructions, eliminating the need for traditional API key management or manual intervention, enabling developers to empower robots, scripts, and automated workflows to directly invoke payment capabilities. Visa stated that this will significantly reduce the complexity of integrating payment systems into AI systems.
The product is currently in a testing phase, and users can apply for access via their GitHub accounts. Visa pointed out that as AI agents evolve from "answering questions" to "executing tasks"—including calling APIs, purchasing computing power, and completing machine-to-machine transactions—payment systems also need to upgrade synchronously to support automated transactions in command-line environments (Command Line Commerce).
Meanwhile, multiple players within the industry are also laying out standards for AI payments. Coinbase and Cloudflare are advancing the x402 protocol, while Stripe and Tempo have introduced the Machine Payments Protocol (MPP). Visa has announced integration with MPP to support card payments within its global network, complementing other AI payment protocols.
19:11
Fold Reports $69.6 Million Net Loss in 2025, Bets on Bitcoin Credit Card to Expand User Base
Svmuu News Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin financial services company Fold has released its 2025 financial report, revealing a full-year net loss of $69.6 million. Its operating loss expanded to $27.7 million, showing a significant year-on-year increase.
Despite the widening losses, the company's revenue grew 34% year-on-year to $31.8 million, and its total annual transaction volume increased 46% to $960 million. Fold added approximately 13,000 new users throughout the year, bringing its total number of accounts to 84,000.
The adjusted EBITDA loss was $17.2 million, corresponding to a loss per share of $0.41. Additionally, the company recorded approximately $9.6 million in one-time expenses related to the repayment of a portion of its convertible bonds to optimize its balance sheet structure.
Fold stated that it is currently expanding its user base and building a Bitcoin-centric financial services ecosystem by launching its enterprise business, "Fold For Business," and a new Bitcoin credit card. The company's CEO, Will Reeves, stated that these products will become crucial levers for future growth.
19:09
SEC Approves Nasdaq to Launch Tokenized Stock Trading Pilot
Svmuu News The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved Nasdaq to launch a tokenized stock trading pilot, marking a further integration of traditional finance and blockchain.
According to the document, eligible participants can choose to settle stocks in tokenized form within the pilot operated by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (a DTCC subsidiary). At the same time, these tokenized stocks will share the same order book and matching priority as traditional stocks and must provide investors with the same shareholder rights.
This pilot allows market participants to explore the feasibility of on-chain settlement without altering the trading structure, representing a significant step in gradually introducing traditional securities market infrastructure to the blockchain.
Under the leadership of SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, regulators are accelerating the formulation of crypto-related rules, including exploring mechanisms such as "innovation exemptions." However, the SEC still emphasizes that tokenized securities must comply with the existing securities legal framework.
Overall, this pilot further validates the possibility of tokenized stocks being implemented on mainstream exchanges and paves the way for broader on-chain securities trading in the future.
19:07
Algorand Foundation Cuts 25% of Staff, Citing Macro Uncertainty and Market Downturn
Svmuu News The Algorand Foundation has announced a reduction of approximately 25% of its workforce to address pressures stemming from global macroeconomic uncertainty and the overall downturn in the crypto market. In a statement, the organization indicated that this move aims to optimize resource allocation, aligning it more closely with the protocol's long-term development direction.
It is reported that the Algorand Foundation currently has fewer than 200 employees. This layoff is part of a recent series of contraction measures within the crypto industry. Projects including RTFKT and Tally have successively shut down, while Messari and Block have also announced layoffs due to industry changes brought about by AI. Additionally, OP Labs cut about 20 employees last week, describing it as part of an organizational restructuring.
Financial data shows that the Algorand Foundation currently holds approximately $38 million in USD-denominated assets and about 1.1 million ALGO tokens. ALGO's current market capitalization is around $800 million, with the ecosystem's real-world asset (RWA) scale at approximately $83 million.
The Foundation stated that it will continue to focus on advancing the development of the Algorand protocol, network, and ecosystem, emphasizing that this adjustment will make the organizational structure more sustainable.
19:06
Fed's Mouthpiece: Powell Restricts Trump's "Room to Maneuver" at the Fed
Svmuu News "Fed's Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated he would continue to serve as Fed Chair if his successor is not confirmed before his term ends on May 15th. This is his most direct statement to date regarding the upcoming leadership transition at the Fed. Powell further stated that as long as the Justice Department's investigation into him remains unresolved, he will not leave the Federal Reserve Board. Powell mentioned he has not yet decided whether he would continue to serve as a Fed Governor if the investigation concludes and a successor takes over his Chair position. It is confirmed that after Powell's term as Chair ends, he can serve as a Fed Governor until 2028. Powell's decision significantly impacts Trump's ability to reshape the Fed's structure. If Powell remains on the Board, Trump would lose a seat he could have personally appointed. Currently, three of the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board were appointed by Trump.
19:04
The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in April is 100%
Svmuu News According to CME's "FedWatch Tool": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed by June is 11.2%, with an 88.8% chance of rates remaining unchanged. The probability of keeping rates unchanged by July is 77.4%.
14:57
Powell: Fed's Latest Forecasts Seem Like Wild Guesses
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that, given the uncertainties arising from the Iran war, the Fed's latest round of forecasts seems a bit like wild guesses. Powell said: "Regarding this Summary of Economic Projections, many have mentioned that if we were to skip one, this would be the best candidate, because given all the uncertainties brought by the war, we simply cannot predict what will happen in the future." (Jin10)
14:53
Federal Reserve Chair Powell: If a new Fed chair is not confirmed by the end of my term, I will serve as interim chair
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Chair Powell: If a new Fed chair is not confirmed by the end of my term, I will serve as interim chair. (Jin10)
14:41
Fed Chair Powell: No Rate Cuts If Inflation Fails to Progress
Svmuu News Fed Chair Powell: Forecasts progress on inflation, but the pace is slower than expected; if there is no progress on inflation, there will be no rate cuts. (Jin10)
14:39
Federal Reserve Chair Powell: Whether we can ignore energy inflation depends on whether we can contain goods inflation
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Chair Powell: Rising energy prices will push up overall inflation. Whether we can ignore energy inflation depends on whether we can contain goods inflation. (Jin10)
14:34
Fed Chair Powell: Expects February PCE inflation at 2.8%, core PCE at 3.0%
Svmuu News Fed Chair Powell: Expects February PCE inflation at 2.8%, core PCE at 3.0%. (Jin10)
14:32
Goldman Sachs: Still Expects Fed to Cut Rates Twice This Year
Svmuu News Goldman Sachs multi-asset fixed income investment head Lindsay Rosner stated that despite upward revisions to inflation forecasts, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still maintains a dovish bias. We still believe there is room for two "normalization" rate cuts in 2026, although the specific timing still depends on the duration of the conflict. (Jin10)
14:26
Economist: Fed's Forecasts Too Optimistic, May Be Repeating Old Path of "Overestimating Inflation, Underestimating Drag"
According to Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, the real "main event" lies in the Summary of Economic Projections. They are merely speculating on what will happen to oil prices, but they expect inflation to rise by 0.3 percentage points without any substantial drag on growth. This forecast may be overly optimistic. It's similar to how they previously overestimated the impact of tariffs on inflation while underestimating the drag on economic growth. 2026 could be just like the past two years, with shocks emerging, them ultimately being caught off guard, and then cutting rates in September. (Jin10)
14:18
The Fed holds steady, still maintains expectation of one rate cut in 2026
Svmuu News The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and projected that inflation will rise and the unemployment rate will remain stable, with only one rate cut expected this year. Officials made these projections while assessing the risks to the U.S. economy from the war between Israel and Iran. The new projections show that by the end of this year, the Fed will only cut rates by 0.25 percentage points, with no specific timing mentioned for this move. This view is consistent with previous forecasts and contradicts Trump's call for significant rate cuts. The Fed statement said, "The impact of developments in the Middle East on the U.S. economy remains uncertain." The statement also noted that the unemployment rate is currently stable. The new interest rate and economic projections indicate that the Fed has largely factored out the impact of the oil crisis. Policymakers still expect to lower interest rates this year and project that the inflation rate will reach 2.2% by the end of 2027, close to the central bank's 2% target. Notably, no policymakers believe that interest rates need to be raised further by the end of this year, although one official expects one rate hike by 2027. (Jin10)
14:17
Powell's Speech Imminent, Probability of Him Mentioning "Inflation" Over 40 Times on Polymarket Temporarily Reported at 80%
Seer Channel monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of Powell mentioning "Inflation" over 40 times during the March press conference (at 3:30 AM) is temporarily reported at 80%.
Additionally, the probability of mentioning "Gold/Oil" is temporarily reported at 93%; the probability of mentioning "Iran" is temporarily reported at 62%.
Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
14:04
Fed's Dot Plot Median: Cumulative 25 Basis Point Rate Cuts Expected by 2026
Svmuu News According to the Federal Reserve's dot plot, among the 19 officials, 7 believe the interest rate should remain unchanged throughout 2026, 7 believe there should be a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, 2 believe there should be a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut, 2 believe there should be a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut, and 1 believes there should be a cumulative 100 basis point rate cut. (Jin10)
14:04
Federal Reserve FOMC Economic Projections: The median PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0%, respectively.
Svmuu News The Federal Reserve FOMC economic projections: the median PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0%, respectively. (December projections were 2.4%, 2.1%, and 2.0%, respectively) (Jin10)
14:03
Fed FOMC Economic Projections: Median GDP growth projections for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively.
Svmuu News The Federal Reserve FOMC economic projections: The median GDP growth projections for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively. (December projections were 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9%, respectively) (Jin10)
14:01
U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Upper Limit) as of March 18th: 3.75%, Expected 3.75%, Previous 3.75%
Svmuu News According to Jinshi, the U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Upper Limit) as of March 18th is 3.75%, with an expectation of 3.75% and a previous value of 3.75%.
14:01
Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged
Svmuu News The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, holding steady for the second consecutive time, in line with market expectations. (Jin10)
13:54
Before the Fed's Interest Rate Decision: The probability of keeping rates unchanged at this meeting is 98.9%
Svmuu News According to CME's "FedWatch Tool": The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at this meeting is 0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.9%, and the probability of raising rates by 25 basis points is 1.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 2.0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.0%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 16.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 0.9%.
13:43
Analyst: If Powell Adopts Hawkish Tone and Dollar Rises Above 100, It Could Pressure Global Risk Trading
According to market analyst Jared Blikre, the March Global Fund Manager Survey released by Bank of America on Tuesday shows that large institutional investors' allocations to emerging market stocks have reached their highest level since February 2021, and their allocations to commodities have also hit a peak since April 2022, while their positioning in the US dollar is below average. This places the US dollar at the center of attention for this Federal Reserve decision. Powell does not need to adjust interest rates to influence market direction. If Powell's remarks appear hawkish and the US Dollar Index rebounds above 100, this could put pressure on trades where investors have heavily invested overseas. Conversely, if Powell's tone is more dovish, such pressure would ease, providing greater room for development for emerging market stocks and commodities. The key level to watch for the US Dollar Index is 100. Once this level is breached, pressure will intensify. If it is repelled again, global risk-on trading will likely persist. (Jin10)
12:49
Iran's Supreme Leader issues statement on Larijani's assassination: Blood debt will soon be settled
Svmuu News Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei issued a statement expressing condolences over the killing of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larijani and his son. In the statement, Mujtaba Khamenei praised Larijani as a core political figure with nearly five decades of political, military, and cultural experience, describing him as "erudite, far-sighted, and loyal." Mujtaba Khamenei emphasized in the statement that such terrorist acts will only "strengthen the will of the Islamic nation" and vowed that "the blood debt will soon be settled." (CCTV News)
12:47
Musk Plans to Settle with SEC Over X Stock Disclosure Issue, Paving the Way for SpaceX IPO
Svmuu News According to a report from the AXIOS website, based on a court filing from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Elon Musk is in settlement negotiations with the SEC regarding his failure to disclose his purchase of Twitter stock before issuing a takeover offer in April 2022. The report states that SpaceX's bankers hope to resolve this matter before potentially launching what could be the largest IPO in history. According to regulations, investors who purchase 5% or more of a publicly traded company's shares must disclose their ownership within 10 days of the purchase. However, Musk disclosed his holdings 21 days after reaching that threshold. He also filed a "13G" form, which is applicable to passive investors, instead of using the "13D" form intended for activist investors, including those planning to make a takeover offer. Musk's lawyers told the court earlier this month that, at least to some extent, these settlement negotiations were conducted without the involvement of the SEC enforcement lawyers handling the case. (Jin10)
12:47
trade.xyz Launches First Official S&P 500 Perpetual Contract
announced that trade.xyz posted on platform X, stating that S&P Dow Jones Indices, in collaboration with trade.xyz, has launched the first official S&P 500 perpetual contract on Hyperliquid. This contract is based on official index data and supports 24/7 continuous trading throughout the year.
12:40
Nikita Bier: X is Building a Multi-Layered Defense System to Address the Risk of AI Content Proliferation
Svmuu News X product lead and Solana advisor Nikita Bier stated that X is building a "defensive fortress" to combat what it calls the "AI Slopacalypse" through multi-layered redundancy mechanisms. The related protective measures are expected to gradually become apparent in the coming months. He pointed out that while it's not yet certain whether all tools will be activated, preparing in advance is a necessary step, indicating that the platform is actively addressing the potential risks posed by AI-generated content.

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