Analyst: If Powell Adopts Hawkish Tone and Dollar Rises Above 100, It Could Pressure Global Risk Trading
According to market analyst Jared Blikre, the March Global Fund Manager Survey released by Bank of America on Tuesday shows that large institutional investors' allocations to emerging market stocks have reached their highest level since February 2021, and their allocations to commodities have also hit a peak since April 2022, while their positioning in the US dollar is below average. This places the US dollar at the center of attention for this Federal Reserve decision. Powell does not need to adjust interest rates to influence market direction. If Powell's remarks appear hawkish and the US Dollar Index rebounds above 100, this could put pressure on trades where investors have heavily invested overseas. Conversely, if Powell's tone is more dovish, such pressure would ease, providing greater room for development for emerging market stocks and commodities. The key level to watch for the US Dollar Index is 100. Once this level is breached, pressure will intensify. If it is repelled again, global risk-on trading will likely persist. (Jin10)
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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