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4/10
08:25
Probability of Fed holding rates unchanged in April before CPI release is 98.4%
Svmuu News According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by June is 1.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.8%, and the probability of cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points is 1.7%.
08:21
Circle Responds to Drift Exploit Incident: Calls for Accelerated Crypto Regulation Legislation, USDC Freezes Require Legal Enforcement
Svmuu News Dante Disparte, Chief Strategy Officer of Circle, has issued a statement in response to the April 1st exploit of Drift Protocol, which resulted in losses exceeding $270 million. He stated that Circle freezes USDC only when legally compelled to do so, not as a unilateral decision. This action is not a backdoor procedure nor algorithmic surveillance, but rather an embodiment of the rule of law in internet-native finance.
He pointed out that a core contradiction in open systems is that legal frameworks update slower than technological development. Protocols, wallets, exchanges, and stablecoin issuers must view security and accountability as a shared responsibility. DeFi protocols can learn from traditional finance's circuit breaker mechanisms to build on-chain protections. Simultaneously, he called for the U.S. "GENIUS Act" and "CLARITY Act" to be passed into law before the next major security incident, incorporating standards for due process, property rights, and financial privacy protection into legislation.
08:19
The main negotiations between Iran and the United States will be held tomorrow
Svmuu News Pakistani media confirmed the arrival of an Iranian delegation for talks, and the main negotiations between Iran and the United States will be held tomorrow. (Jin10)
08:19
European Central Bank Supports EU Regulatory Reform, Crypto Asset Service Providers to be Uniformly Supervised by ESMA
Svmuu News The European Central Bank (ECB) has expressed support for the European Commission's proposal to centralize financial supervision. The proposal aims to transfer the supervisory authority over cross-border financial institutions, including Crypto-Asset Service Providers (CASPs), from national regulators to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). This move is intended to deepen the integration of the EU capital market and enhance its international competitiveness. The ECB emphasized that the reform requires equipping ESMA with sufficient manpower and funding, while minimizing market disruptions during the regulatory transition period. (Reuters)
08:12
Fed's Daly Preempts High Inflation Ahead of CPI Data Release
Svmuu News Federal Reserve official Daly stated that even before the oil price shock, the United States itself had work to do in combating inflation, and now this work simply requires more time. If the Iran conflict is resolved quickly and oil prices fall, rate cuts are "not impossible"; however, if inflation remains persistently above expectations for an extended period, the Fed will maintain a wait-and-see approach until confident the inflation issue has been resolved. She believes the likelihood of raising interest rates is lower than that of cutting or keeping rates unchanged. Daly pointed out that persistently high oil prices would mean higher inflation but would also impact economic growth. She has already seen higher prices being transmitted into the economy, with people reducing travel due to concerns about rising costs.
However, she emphasized that the current situation does not represent a fundamental price increase, and it is necessary to observe how the conflict will develop and how businesses will pass on price increases. She noted that the real issue lies in whether the ceasefire can be sustained; if it can, then the CPI data becomes irrelevant; high inflation data itself would not surprise anyone. She stressed that bringing inflation down to 2% is crucial, but doing so at the expense of employment would put households in a difficult position. Currently, the risks to the Fed achieving its full employment and inflation goals are roughly balanced. (Jin10)
08:11
Analysis: Bitcoin Faces Resistance After Touching $72,000, CPI and US-Iran Talks Emerge as Key Variables
Svmuu News Bitcoin has risen nearly 7% since Sunday, with its upward momentum slowing after reaching the $72,000 range, and institutional fund flows remain unclear. The market is focused on two major uncertainties: the US March CPI data (expected to exceed 3% year-on-year, driven by energy prices) and the progress of US-Iran talks over the weekend. The options market shows that while institutions are chasing $80,000 call options on Deribit and call options related to BlackRock's IBIT, they are also maintaining a high proportion of put options to hedge against downside risks. If CPI exceeds expectations, it may reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike, putting pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. (CoinDesk)
08:10
Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin "Day/Night" ETFs Launch on Same Day, NGHT Rebounds but Future Performance Remains to Be Seen
Svmuu News According to Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, who stated on platform X that while the market focused on the listing of Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF (MSBT), another Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, the Bitcoin After Dark ETF (NGHT), also launched this Wednesday. The product's first-day trading performance was lackluster, but its trading volume saw a significant increase on the second day. Its future market performance remains to be observed.
For long-term ETF investors, holding products similar to MSBT can already yield good returns. However, if NGHT shows strong subsequent capital inflows, it may gain market recognition; conversely, it could quickly become marginalized. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF, leveraging its distribution channel advantages, is still expected to achieve significant success.
08:08
Fed's Daly: If US-Iran Ceasefire Holds, CPI Data Becomes Irrelevant
Svmuu News Fed's Daly stated that the real question is whether the ceasefire can be sustained. If it can, then the CPI data becomes irrelevant. (Jin10)
08:05
Fed's Daly: Sees Lower Probability of Rate Hikes Compared to Cuts or Holding Rates Steady
Svmuu News Fed's Daly believes the probability of a rate hike is lower than that of a cut or holding rates steady. If inflation remains above expectations for an extended period, the Fed will maintain a wait-and-see approach until confident that the inflation issue has been resolved. (Jin10)
08:01
Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau: Beware of Hong Kong "Pseudo-Exchanges" Falsely Listing, Guard Against Illegal Fundraising Through "Original Shares"
Svmuu News The Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau has issued a risk warning. Recently, illegal intermediaries have been using the gimmick of "listing and ringing the bell on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange upon payment" to provide services such as fake stock codes and website publicity. The related platforms are mostly "pseudo-exchanges" and package false listings through fabricated ceremonies. Some companies take the opportunity to promote equity and "original shares" to the public, suspected of illegal fundraising. The regulator reminds investors to verify the qualifications of institutions through the official website of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, be wary of capital-guaranteed and high-yield promotions, avoid transferring funds to personal accounts or unofficial platforms, and promptly report and file complaints upon discovering clues.
07:58
Anchor Fintech plans to launch regulated Hong Kong dollar stablecoin HKDAP in phases during Q2
Svmuu News: Animoca Brands announced on the X platform that Anchor Fintech, a joint venture co-founded by Standard Chartered Bank, HKT, and Animoca Brands, will phase in the launch of the regulated Hong Kong dollar-backed stablecoin HKDAP (HKD At Par) starting in the second quarter of this year. Its Group President, Evan Auyang, stated that a properly governed Hong Kong dollar-backed stablecoin is crucial for Hong Kong's financial infrastructure.
07:57
RWA Tokenization Platform Libeara Completes New Funding Round, AlloyX Ventures Participates
Svmuu News Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization platform Libeara has announced the completion of a new funding round. AlloyX Ventures, the venture capital arm of NASDAQ-listed company SOLOWIN HOLDINGS, participated in the investment. The specific investment amount has not been disclosed. The new funds will be used to advance the construction of compliant digital infrastructure. (Globenewswire)
07:49
Arab Media: Lebanon-Israel Negotiations to Precede US-Iran Talks
Svmuu News According to Arab media Asharq News: Negotiations between Lebanon and Israel will take place before those between Iran and the United States. A preparatory phone conference was held today, with participants including Israeli Ambassador to Washington Nada Hammad Muawad, Israeli Ambassador to Washington Yeshir Leit, US Ambassador to Lebanon Michelle Issa, and US State Department Director of Policy Planning Mike Needham. The Lebanon-Israel face-to-face meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, chaired by Lebanese Ambassador Hammad Muawad. The Lebanon talks have now been assigned to US Secretary of State Rubio and are completely separate from the Iran talks and the Islamabad talks. (Jin10)
07:48
Anthropic Reaches Data Center Leasing Agreement with CoreWeave
Svmuu News Anthropic has agreed to lease data center capacity from CoreWeave to meet the growing demand for its AI services. In a statement on Friday, CoreWeave said this multi-year agreement will help Anthropic build and deploy its Claude AI models. CoreWeave CEO Intrator stated that the agreement will include various NVIDIA chip architectures within US data centers. Both companies declined to disclose the financial terms of the deal.
Anthropic, like OpenAI, has been at the forefront of the AI service boom, sometimes struggling to keep its products online in the face of what it calls "unprecedented demand." Earlier this week, Anthropic announced partnerships with Broadcom and Google to secure 3.5 gigawatts of energy (1 gigawatt is enough to power approximately 750,000 US households simultaneously). (Jin10)
07:45
World Cup Prediction Market Heats Up, Gate Platform Shows Spain's Probability of Winning "2026 World Cup Champion" at 15.4%
Svmuu News: The World Cup prediction market heated up today, with odds distribution becoming more dispersed and market divergence intensifying. As a CEX integrated with Polymarket, data from the Gate platform shows that in the "2026 World Cup Champion" prediction market, the corresponding probabilities for Spain, France, and England are 15.4%, 14.7%, and 11.3% respectively, reflecting the market's concentrated focus on traditional powerhouses coexisting with uncertainty.
Currently, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, using assets from their exchange accounts to participate in event predictions, trading with USDT, or conducting on-chain prediction trades on the Polygon network via a Web3 wallet.
07:43
An OTC Whale Missed Out on Approximately $870,000 in Profits by Selling RAVE Too Early
Svmuu News According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale address, which had previously purchased 163,405 ETH (approximately $440 million) and 4,000 cbBTC (approximately $296 million) via over-the-counter (OTC) trading, sold 899,999 RAVE (approximately $229,000) at cost three weeks ago.
However, the price of RAVE has surged by 226% today. If the address had not sold early, its unrealized profit would now be approximately $870,000.
07:42
Analysis: Multiple Factors Support Long-Term Bullish Trend for Gold, Year-End Gold Price May Reach $5,800
According to Svmuu, institutions including ANZ and Goldman Sachs state that gold could still rebound in the long term even if the Middle East war disrupts markets. Analysts from various institutions believe that resilient central bank demand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets are all reasons for long-term bullishness. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes stated that prices are expected to eventually recover as the deteriorating macroeconomic mix of growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume rate cuts.
ANZ maintains its outlook, forecasting the gold price to reach $5,800 by year-end. The analysts wrote that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key supporting pillar, with official purchases projected to be around 850 tonnes in 2026. ANZ's bullish stance echoes similar forecasts from Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets in early March. Goldman Sachs maintains its $5,400 forecast, citing continued central bank buying and expectations for the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously noted that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, gold still faces tactical downside risks in the short term. However, a prolonged conflict could accelerate the diversification away from traditional Western assets, providing long-term support for gold prices. (Jin10)
07:41
Caixin: Polymarket's Use of USDC for Settlement and Delivery Poses Significant Legal Risks for Participants in Mainland China
Svmuu News Caixin.com published an article titled "Financial Innovation or Insider Trading? The Rise and Controversy of Polymarket." It points out that when insider information can be openly monetized, the boundaries of prediction markets have already blurred. Is this "gambling" cloaked in financial attire, or even suspected insider trading? However, regardless of the legal debate over whether it constitutes gambling, the fact that Polymarket uses the USDC stablecoin for settlement and delivery itself poses a significant legal risk for participants within mainland China. Previously, U.S. Senators Merkley and Klobuchar introduced the "End Prediction Market Corruption Act," which prohibits the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from trading on prediction markets and requires the prediction market trading activities of their spouses and dependent children to be included in annual financial disclosures.
07:40
China AI Industry Development Alliance Meeting: Token Consumption Rises, Agent Frameworks Led by OpenClaw Accelerate Their Rise
Svmuu News The 17th Plenary Session of the China Artificial Intelligence Industry Development Alliance was held at the National Cybersecurity Base in Dongxihu District, Wuhan. Yu Xiaohui pointed out that artificial intelligence is currently accelerating its entry into the intelligent-native era, with four major trends worthy of attention: First, the capabilities of foundational large models continue to break through, with programming abilities rapidly advancing from "code completion" to "full-stack development agents." Second, agent frameworks represented by OpenClaw are accelerating their rise, leading to explosive growth in the agent application ecosystem. Third, the large-scale application of agents continues to activate the intelligent economy, with rising Token consumption driving rapid growth in cloud services. Fourth, security risks such as data privacy and permission abuse brought about by the rapid proliferation of agents cannot be ignored; security governance must advance in tandem with application promotion. He stated that the Alliance will continue to focus on five areas: technological innovation, application traction, ecosystem building, international cooperation, and security governance, to jointly create a new landscape for the development of the AI industry. (China Academy of Information and Communications Technology)
07:37
Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief: Stablecoin Purchases or Usage Should Be Through Regulated Channels
Svmuu News: Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) Chief Executive Eddie Yue stated that the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses have been granted today. According to the business plans of the licensees, they are expected to commence operations within the coming months upon completion of relevant preparatory work.
Yue mentioned that he looks forward to the issuers launching their businesses as planned, actively exploring development opportunities while managing risks effectively, promoting the application of compliant stablecoins, and addressing pain points in financial and economic activities. Meanwhile, the public should remain vigilant against any fraudulent activities or scams claiming to be associated with licensed entities or their issued stablecoins. When purchasing or using stablecoins, regulated channels should be utilized. If in doubt, individuals should consult the HKMA's register to verify the identity of licensees or contact the licensees directly for further inquiries.

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