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4/10
09:26
Analysts: US-Iran Talks Imminent, Crude Oil Traders Hedge Risks
Svmuu News Crude oil futures prices showed little change as traders head into the weekend, with planned talks between the US and Iran set to determine whether the ceasefire in the Middle East can hold. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said, "Traders have essentially withdrawn from the market; the $7 volatility seen yesterday seemed to occur with very few human traders participating. All they are doing is necessary hedging or unwinding positions to further reduce risk exposure." He added, "Perhaps after this weekend, we will have a clearer picture of whether the differences between Iran and the US are too significant to reach an agreement." (Jin10)
09:24
Hassett: The Fed Still Has Room to Cut Rates, This Outlook Will Be Very Solid
Svmuu News According to Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, the Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates, and this outlook will be very solid. He also stated that backup plans have been developed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
Furthermore, after data showed that gasoline prices rose due to the Iran war and U.S. inflation accelerated in March, bond traders slightly reduced their bets on the Fed cutting rates once this year. Pricing in the interest rate swap market on Friday indicated that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this year is about one-third, showing little change compared to before the data release. Following the report's release, U.S. Treasuries edged lower, with yields across maturities rising by two to three basis points. Tom di Galoma, Managing Director of Mischler Financial Group, said: "Today's CPI data will not support bond prices, as next month's inflation report will bring more trouble for investors and the Fed." (Jin10)
09:23
Hassett: Strait of Hormuz Could Open Within Two Months
Svmuu News According to Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, the Strait of Hormuz could open within two months. Once the Strait of Hormuz is opened, we expect energy prices to drop rapidly. The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by 10% compared to normal levels. (Jin10)
09:14
Citigroup: Expects March Core PCE Month-over-Month Rate at 0.3%
Svmuu News Compared to the PCE indicator favored by the Fed, core CPI has consistently shown unusually small increases. Based on today's CPI data, economists at Citigroup preliminarily estimate that the month-over-month increase in core PCE, rounded, will be 0.3%. This level is higher than what corresponds to the Fed's 2% year-over-year target. However, it is better than the 0.4% increase seen in February's data released yesterday. The Citigroup team noted that they still need to incorporate PPI data to make a more accurate forecast for PCE. (Jin10)
09:12
Goldman Sachs: The Fed Has Room for Patience, Inflation Eases Temporarily but Pressure Remains
Svmuu News: Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo from Goldman Sachs Asset Management stated that markets had already prepared for strong inflation data, so today's data, which aligned with expectations, provided some slight relief. However, this might be the best overall inflation reading we see for some time, as the data may only partially reflect the full impact of the Iran conflict, which once pushed U.S. crude oil and gasoline prices up by about 70%. She added, "The Fed has room for patience, and there are good reasons for it to do so. Today's data buys the Fed time, but the real test still lies ahead." (Jin10)
09:12
Iran has not officially confirmed the negotiations or the delegation members, and the prospects for reaching a lasting peace agreement remain unclear.
Svmuu News: Officials in Pakistan's capital stated that an Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Friday evening to prepare for crucial peace talks scheduled with the United States on Saturday. An anonymous source mentioned that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Kalibaf will lead the delegation. U.S. President Trump has dispatched Vice President Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff, and his son-in-law Kushner to Islamabad to meet with Iranian officials. The Iranian embassy in Islamabad did not respond to requests for comment. Iran has not officially confirmed its participation in the talks or the delegation's composition, although Iranian state media reported that Kalibaf will lead the negotiations. Given Israel's continued airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, the prospects for achieving a lasting peace agreement this weekend remain uncertain. The U.S. and Iran are also far apart on demands for a long-term ceasefire, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key sticking point. (Jin10)
09:10
Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" Probability Drops to 43%, Down 12% in 24 Hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for the Polymarket event "Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by May 31" has significantly decreased, dropping 6% in 1 hour and 12% in 24 hours.
The contract rules for this event are: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or exceeding 60 on any date from market creation until May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "YES". Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Pakistani media confirmed today that an Iranian delegation has arrived for negotiations. The main talks between Iran and the United States will be held tomorrow. The U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan will focus on opening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire. Furthermore, the U.S. delegation participating in the U.S.-Iran talks has departed for Islamabad, Pakistan, with Vice President Vance having boarded the plane. Before departure, Vance stated that he looks forward to negotiations on the Iran issue and mentioned that U.S. President Trump has provided "fairly clear guidelines" for the talks.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
09:02
Impacted by Middle East Situation, Binance Offers Temporary Relocation Options for Approximately 1,000 Employees in UAE
Svmuu News: Due to the conflict involving Iran, Binance has offered temporary voluntary relocation options to its approximately 1,000 employees in the United Arab Emirates, with choices including Hong Kong, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, and Bangkok. Binance stated that its UAE operations are running normally, with some employees choosing to remain, and global user services remain unaffected.
This adjustment follows regional conflicts disrupting crypto, commercial, and sporting activities in the UAE, including the postponement of TOKEN2049 Dubai to 2027 and the cancellation of TON Gateway. The UAE government has stated it has intercepted hundreds of missiles and drones since late February. Binance, leveraging Abu Dhabi's global market regulatory framework, is deepening local cooperation, with its global business supported by Abu Dhabi. (CoinDesk)
08:58
"Fed Mouthpiece": March Core CPI Slightly Below Expectations, But Single-Month Data Insufficient to Alter Fed's Assessment
Svmuu News "Fed Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: The US March core CPI was slightly below expectations at 0.196%. However, a single month's data doesn't say much. The Fed wants to see energy prices decline (coupled with more confidence that the tariff pass-through effects have ended), and likely more energy impacts (airfare, transportation) are still ahead. (Jin10)
08:53
Analysis: US-Iran Negotiations Emerge as New Variable, Dollar and Oil Buying Strategy Faces Test
Svmuu According to foreign exchange analyst Carter Johnson, under the market landscape following the release of CPI data, the US Dollar Spot Index has accumulated a drop of approximately 1.4% this week and is expected to record its largest weekly decline since January. In terms of clear macro trading strategies during the US-Iran conflict, buying the US dollar and oil performed quite well. However, as the foreign exchange market enters the next phase of trading driven by headlines (this time concerning reports of negotiations against the backdrop of a fragile ceasefire), this strategy will face a test. (Jin10)
08:50
Iranian Leader's Envoy: US-Iran Talks in Islamabad May Last Two to Three Days
Svmuu News: An envoy of the Iranian leader stated that the talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad may last two to three days. (Jin10)
08:45
Gate Releases White Paper on Employment Development Trends in the Crypto Industry: AI Reshapes Job Structure, Versatile Talent Becomes Core Competitiveness
Svmuu News: Gate Research Institute, in collaboration with Global HR, has released the "Gate White Paper on Employment Development Trends in the Crypto Industry," which outlines the talent structure, job changes, and AI transformation trends in the crypto industry for Q1 2026. The report indicates that as the market shifts from expansion to restructuring growth, AI is accelerating the reshaping of job definitions and organizational methods within the crypto industry. Versatile talent with a dual background in "AI tool proficiency × deep vertical industry expertise" is becoming the most competitive core group at present.
In terms of sector distribution, the crypto employment market in Q1 2026 has formed four major parallel directions: exchanges, public chains and infrastructure, stablecoins, and DeFi and derivatives. Among these, exchange-related positions account for 34%, public chains and infrastructure for 28%, DeFi and derivatives for 21%, and stablecoins for 17%. Regarding job structure, technical research and development remains the largest demand area, accounting for 39%, followed by compliance and risk control at 13%, and product and design at 12%. Overall, the industry's recruitment focus is increasingly shifting toward core engineering, security, compliance, payment products, and commercialization capabilities. Stablecoins, AI, compliance, and infrastructure remain the more certain directions for talent demand currently.
08:40
Analysis: U.S. CPI Monthly Rate Hits Highest Since 2022, Oil Price Surge Contributes Nearly 3/4 of the Increase
Svmuu News: Due to soaring gasoline prices amid the war with Iran, the U.S. seasonally adjusted CPI jumped 0.9% month-on-month in March, marking the largest increase since 2022. Data released on Friday showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% compared to February, with the year-on-year increase climbing to 3.3%, the fastest pace since 2024. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the record surge in gasoline prices contributed nearly three-quarters of the CPI increase for the month. Another indicator excluding food and energy costs saw its month-on-month increase slow to 0.2%. (Jin10)
08:39
Reuters: Market Pricing Continues to Bet on Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged Throughout 2026
Svmuu News According to Reuters: Market pricing continues to bet that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026. (Jin10)
08:39
Bitcoin Strengthens Slightly After CPI Release, Remains Volatile Above $72,000
Svmuu News According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's price showed a slight strengthening after the release of U.S. March inflation data. Overall, the March CPI rose 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, meeting expectations, primarily driven by a significant surge in energy prices influenced by the Iran situation. Prior to the data release, Bitcoin's price was trading within a narrow range around $72,000. Following the release, it continued to hold above this range. Previously, due to the Middle East situation and the spike in oil prices, market expectations for a Fed rate cut within the year have significantly cooled. It is now widely anticipated that interest rates will remain unchanged in the short term.
08:36
Market pricing shows increased bets on one Fed rate cut this year
Svmuu News Market pricing indicates that bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates once this year have increased, with U.S. short-term interest rate futures paring some gains after the CPI report was released. (Jin10)
08:34
WTI and Brent crude oil showed little fluctuation after the CPI data release, with the latest prices at $97.57 per barrel and $95.46 per barrel
Svmuu News According to Gate data, WTI and Brent crude oil showed little fluctuation after the CPI data release, with the latest prices at $97.57 per barrel and $95.46 per barrel. The US Dollar Index (DXY) briefly fell by 10 points, now reported at 98.68.
08:33
U.S. Vice President Vance: Trump Provides Very Clear Guidelines for Negotiations
Svmuu News U.S. Vice President Vance stated that Trump has provided very clear guidelines for the negotiations, looks forward to the talks with Iran, and believes the negotiations with Iran will be positive. (Jin10)
08:32
U.S. March CPI Rises Significantly, Spot Gold Rises Over $10 in the Short Term
Svmuu News According to data, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate came in at 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, meeting market expectations. The U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate came in at 0.9%, the highest since June 2022, meeting market expectations. According to Gate data, spot gold rose over $10 in the short term, currently trading at $4775 per ounce.
08:31
U.S. March Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year 3.3%, Expected 3.3%
Svmuu News According to data, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate is 3.3%, expected 3.3%, previous value 2.40%. (Jin10)

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