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8/11
16:18
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed new charges against a Florida man, alleging he misappropriated $48 million of customers' money within the scheme.
15:55
Iranian General Mohammad Reza Naghdi stated the country could maintain missile and drone production even through years of conflict, claiming Iran would retain the ability to continue launching ballistic missiles throughout a prolonged war.
15:47
Trend funds (commodity trading advisors, CTAs) have increased their short bets on global bonds to a record level, with assets under management estimated to exceed $400 billion. UBS data shows that CTA's profit and loss exposure is approximately $300 million for every 1 basis point change in 10-year US Treasury yields ahead of inflation data, the highest level since UBS began compiling this data in 1990. The market is closely watching the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, to be released on Wednesday evening Beijing time, which could strengthen or weaken expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as September, and potentially trigger a bond rally, forcing CTA shorts to face pressure to cover their positions.
15:47
Despite the S&P 500 index repeatedly hitting new historical highs and corporate earnings increasing by 32% year-over-year in Q2, investor anxiety continues to spread. Fund inflows into passive investment tools have slowed, and short sellers have outnumbered long positions in 20 of the past 25 weeks. Quantitative firm 22V Research points out that current market sentiment is severely disconnected from economic fundamentals, and historically, such "excessive pessimism" often presages a rebound. The firm projects expected returns for the S&P 500 index to be 1.6% over the next 1 month, 5.1% over the next 3 months, and 7.8% over the next 6 months.
15:43
Kelsey Berro, a fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Chase Asset Management, stated that despite recent signals of slowing inflation and market expectations of only a modest 0.2% month-over-month increase in core CPI, the Federal Reserve remains cautious as core PCE inflation is still above 3%. Berro emphasized that a single data point will not determine the Federal Reserve's next move, and key economic data, including CPI, PPI, and employment reports, as well as the Jackson Hole Symposium, are expected in the coming weeks. The market continues to price in potential rate hikes, reflecting the Federal Reserve's possible strategy of implementing "preemptive rate hikes" amid persistent high inflation data and a stable labor market.
15:40
Carmignac Gestion固定收益基金经理Marie-Anne Allier表示,尽管能源价格上涨和地缘政治紧张局势对债券市场的负面影响已大部分被市场消化,但食品通胀是一个尚未完全反映在债券价格中的迫在眉睫的风险。她指出,恶劣天气、俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突导致的粮食出口中断以及厄尔尼诺现象,可能在未来六到十二个月内引发新的食品价格供应冲击。
15:19
OpenAI announced the release of a dedicated ChatGPT desktop app for Linux operating systems this week, fulfilling a highly requested feature from the open-source developer community. The app, available in preview, supports various distributions including Ubuntu 24.04 and 26.04 LTS, Debian 13, and Fedora 43 and 44, and is a worldwide release. This move brings ChatGPT, ChatGPT Work, and Codex to Linux users, though it follows Anthropic's Claude desktop app for Linux, which launched about a month prior.
15:13
Venezuela and Israel have agreed to restore consular relations. This comes after Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, sought a major foreign policy realignment following the US military's kidnapping of former leader Nicolas Maduro in January. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Felix Plasencia Gonzalez stated that the two sides decided to restore consular relations and establish a coordination mechanism to provide consular services to citizens of both countries, after Israel sent a team to assist Venezuela in responding to a double earthquake. Venezuela had severed diplomatic ties with Israel 17 years ago due to an Israeli attack on Gaza.
15:12
Itaú Unibanco, Latin America's largest lender with over $562 billion in assets, has teamed up with digital-asset infrastructure provider OpenAssets. The partnership aims to test the issuance, trading, and settlement of fixed-income securities and investment funds using distributed-ledger technology, as part of a pilot program overseen by the Brazilian Financial and Capital Markets Association (ANBIMA). This initiative builds on Itaú's previous involvement in Brazil's central bank Drex pilot in 2023, further advancing the country's position as a key hub for tokenization.
14:53
Google CEO Sundar Pichai announced on X that the Gemini app has become one of the company's fastest-growing products, recently surpassing 1 billion monthly active users. This makes it the 14th Google product to reach 1 billion users. Gemini's rapid growth keeps it in step with OpenAI's ChatGPT, which reached 1 billion monthly active users in June of this year. The data released specifically refers to the Gemini app and does not include AI users from other channels.
14:38
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. The market generally expects the July overall CPI to increase by only 0.1% month-over-month, while the core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy prices) is projected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month. On an annualized basis, the overall CPI is expected to be 3.4% and the core CPI 2.5%, both down 0.1 percentage point from June. Analysts believe that if the data meets expectations, it could provide "breathing room" for the Federal Reserve on interest rate hikes, allowing it to keep rates unchanged for the remainder of the year. However, Bank of America still anticipates three more rate hikes in the coming months, while Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack has stated that multiple rate hikes may be necessary.
14:31
Morgan Ortagus, a former deputy presidential special envoy, stated she does not see proof for the narrative that the US is at a disadvantage in negotiations with Iran, adding that strategic patience favors the United States. Ortagus also noted that while military options remain available, the Iranian regime's greatest fear is an uprising by its own people, rather than the US or Israel.
14:14
MicroStrategy's CEO stated the company will resume Bitcoin accumulation this year. This announcement comes despite recent sales that challenged its long-standing accumulation strategy, with the company having bought roughly 25 times more Bitcoin than it sold this year.
14:14
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group is set to introduce two compute futures contracts, pending regulatory approval, which will allow companies and investors to trade and hedge the price of AI computing capacity. These contracts will be tied to the rental cost of Nvidia's H100 and newer Blackwell B200 graphics processing units, based on Silicon Data indexes that track hourly GPU rental prices.

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