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8/11
17:52
Super Micro's latest forecast has exceeded expectations, building on an improved profitability trajectory that the company teased several weeks ago.
17:42
Bitcoin has extended a five-week standstill, with steady demand from exchange-traded funds being offset by selling from miners and corporate holders. Trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels in three years. Analysts believe the upcoming U.S. inflation report (CPI) could provide the necessary catalyst to break the stalemate, as implied volatility has collapsed and conviction is thin on both sides.
17:32
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it has used its "emergency powers" to order prediction market operator Kalshi to continue operating in New York State. This follows a lawsuit filed against Kalshi by New York Attorney General Letitia James in late July, alleging that it violated the state's gambling laws by offering sports-related prediction markets and demanding the platform's closure. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig reiterated that Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be regulated under a patchwork of state gambling laws, emphasizing that these are financial exchanges operating across states, and New York State has no authority to regulate these interstate financial markets. This move marks the latest conflict between federal commodity regulators and state regulators over jurisdiction in prediction markets.
17:29
The Panama Canal has seen its transit fees reach a record high, primarily driven by the El Niño weather phenomenon, which has caused falling water levels. This could lead to a limitation of transit slots through the crucial maritime passageway. Additionally, the Iran war is contributing to the shipping choke points.
17:18
Lumentum reported blowout earnings and an upbeat forecast, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure, though its stock was largely flat after hours.
16:37
One analyst believes that a lack of clarity around Oracle’s future AI spending plans is keeping investors on the sidelines.
16:27
The AI infrastructure provider reported revenue that topped Wall Street expectations, with its revenue backlog now standing at $104 billion. However, the company's net loss increased to $626 million from $290 million a year ago, and it holds $35 billion in debt on its balance sheet, primarily to cover the cost of Nvidia GPUs and other equipment. CoreWeave has recently secured an additional $21 billion commitment from Meta, a multi-year agreement with Anthropic, and a $6 billion commitment from Jane Street.
16:18
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed new charges against a Florida man, alleging he misappropriated $48 million of customers' money within the scheme.
15:55
Iranian General Mohammad Reza Naghdi stated the country could maintain missile and drone production even through years of conflict, claiming Iran would retain the ability to continue launching ballistic missiles throughout a prolonged war.
15:47
Trend funds (commodity trading advisors, CTAs) have increased their short bets on global bonds to a record level, with assets under management estimated to exceed $400 billion. UBS data shows that CTA's profit and loss exposure is approximately $300 million for every 1 basis point change in 10-year US Treasury yields ahead of inflation data, the highest level since UBS began compiling this data in 1990. The market is closely watching the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, to be released on Wednesday evening Beijing time, which could strengthen or weaken expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as September, and potentially trigger a bond rally, forcing CTA shorts to face pressure to cover their positions.
15:47
Despite the S&P 500 index repeatedly hitting new historical highs and corporate earnings increasing by 32% year-over-year in Q2, investor anxiety continues to spread. Fund inflows into passive investment tools have slowed, and short sellers have outnumbered long positions in 20 of the past 25 weeks. Quantitative firm 22V Research points out that current market sentiment is severely disconnected from economic fundamentals, and historically, such "excessive pessimism" often presages a rebound. The firm projects expected returns for the S&P 500 index to be 1.6% over the next 1 month, 5.1% over the next 3 months, and 7.8% over the next 6 months.
15:43
Kelsey Berro, a fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Chase Asset Management, stated that despite recent signals of slowing inflation and market expectations of only a modest 0.2% month-over-month increase in core CPI, the Federal Reserve remains cautious as core PCE inflation is still above 3%. Berro emphasized that a single data point will not determine the Federal Reserve's next move, and key economic data, including CPI, PPI, and employment reports, as well as the Jackson Hole Symposium, are expected in the coming weeks. The market continues to price in potential rate hikes, reflecting the Federal Reserve's possible strategy of implementing "preemptive rate hikes" amid persistent high inflation data and a stable labor market.

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