Recent Trends in Bitcoin Hashrate
Bitcoin hashrate is a key metric for measuring the computing power and security of the Bitcoin network. Recently, the Bitcoin network hashrate has shown a significant downward trend.
- In Q4 2025, Bitcoin hashrate fell from approximately 1,160 EH/s in early October to around 1,045 EH/s in December, a drop of about 9.9%.
- In Q1 2026, the hashrate further declined by approximately 4%, marking the first quarterly decrease since 2020.
- In June 2026, Bitcoin's seven-day moving average hashrate slipped from a historical high of nearly 950 EH/s to about 810 EH/s, a 15% decrease.
- As of September 2026, the Bitcoin network hashrate is well below its expected growth trend by approximately 50%, representing one of the longest sustained periods of decline since 2021.
Main Reasons for the Hashrate Plunge
The decline in Bitcoin hashrate is a result of a combination of factors:
Economic Pressure and Bitcoin Price Volatility
The volatility of Bitcoin's price directly impacts mining profitability. When Bitcoin prices fall, mining revenue decreases, making it difficult for older or less efficient mining rigs with higher operating costs to maintain profitability, or even leading to losses, forcing them to shut down. For example, in March 2026, analysis indicated that the production cost per Bitcoin was close to $90,000, while the spot price was around $67,000, leading some miners to face negative profit margins.
Rising Energy Costs and Seasonal Factors
The global increase in energy prices is a significant reason for rising mining costs. North America faces peak energy demand in winter, leading to higher electricity prices; extreme summer heat can also push up electricity prices, causing miners to reduce operations or shut down equipment during peak demand periods to control costs. Geopolitical events, such as the Iran conflict leading to rising oil prices, can also indirectly push up global electricity prices, further impacting miners' operating costs.
Miners Shifting to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and High-Performance Computing (HPC)
To seek higher and more predictable returns, many mining companies are shifting their infrastructure towards Artificial Intelligence (AI) and High-Performance Computing (HPC). Data shows that AI computing can generate approximately $1.5 million in profit per megawatt per year, while Bitcoin mining only yields about $500,000. This significant profit gap has prompted some miners to sell Bitcoin reserves and mining hardware to fund their transition to AI/HPC businesses.
Regulatory Scrutiny
Historical experience shows that regulatory actions in certain regions can also lead to the removal of mining capacity. For example, regulatory actions in China's Xinjiang region were once considered a factor affecting hashrate.
Impact of the Hashrate Plunge
The decline in Bitcoin hashrate has multiple impacts on the network and the market:
Network Security and Decentralization
Hashrate is an important indicator of Bitcoin network security. Theoretically, a decrease in hashrate could reduce network security, increasing the risk of a "51% attack," where malicious actors control more than half of the network's computing power, potentially allowing them to tamper with transaction records. At the same time, hashrate is also a measure of the network's decentralization.
Automatic Mining Difficulty Adjustment
The Bitcoin network is designed with an automatic adjustment mechanism that automatically adjusts mining difficulty every 2016 blocks (approximately every two weeks). When hashrate decreases, the network automatically lowers the mining difficulty to ensure that block generation time remains stable at approximately 10 minutes. This mechanism effectively balances changes in network computing power, making it easier for remaining miners to find blocks. For example, in Q4 2025, the Bitcoin network experienced three consecutive negative difficulty adjustments.
Miner Behavior and Market Impact
Decreased profitability forces miners to face financial pressure, and some miners may need to sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover operating costs, which could lead to further short-term declines in Bitcoin prices, creating a negative feedback loop. Some mining companies may face difficulties repaying equipment loans, or even layoffs or selling BTC reserves. However, despite some miners shifting to AI computing rentals, the Bitcoin network's difficulty adjustment mechanism will automatically restore network balance and will not necessarily fundamentally hinder Bitcoin's long-term development.
Investor Sentiment
A sustained decline in hashrate may be interpreted by the market as a signal of reduced mining profitability and potential network instability, thereby affecting investor confidence and market sentiment.
