JPMorgan Chase The report noted that the U.S. labor market has begun to cool after a year of economic and financial market turmoil, and is expected to start 2026 on a slower note before gradually improving in the second half of the year.In a forecast report released earlier this month, the bank noted that the weakening momentum of job growth in 2025 can be attributed to business uncertainty caused by tariffs and trade policies. Michael Feroli, an economist at the bank, said: ““As a result, businesses continue to face challenges in both long-term and short-term planning, with both layoff and hiring rates remaining low. When companies lack confidence in the outlook for the next six months, they tend to be cautious about making large-scale changes to their workforce.”Furthermore, the Donald Trump’s immigration controls and deportation efforts have been more aggressive than expected. The reduction in the labor supply, combined with a relatively stable labor force participation rate, implies that the number of new jobs needed each month to keep the unemployment rate steady could plummet from 50,000 to just 15,000. Although the pace of job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate is still expected to rise gradually.