On Wednesday, LME copper futures closed down $136 at $12,423 per tonne, marking a year-to-date gain of nearly 42% in 2025—the largest annual increase in 16 years. Analysts expect that, ahead of the U.S. decision on copper tariffs in mid-2026, the CME’s premium over the LME will continue to attract copper inflows into U.S. inventories, thereby tightening supply in traditional consumption hubs. Dan Smith, Managing Director at Commodity Market Analytics, said: “ “I don’t think we’ll see a reversal anytime soon. These flows are primarily driven by arbitrage and remain subject to U.S. policy, which is difficult to predict.” Smith noted that on the demand side, seasonal factors will provide short-term support for copper, as the first quarter typically supports the industrial cycle and sees significant inventory restocking ahead of the summer.