Due to weak global demand for commodities and the waning of earlier stockpiling demand, Indonesia’s export momentum is expected to remain sluggish at least through the first half of this year. In a report, OCBC economist Wong Xian Yong noted that export growth has slowed since the fourth quarter of last year, with the recent contraction exceeding historical averages, reflecting widespread weakness in major export destinations and core commodities. He noted that while the pending U.S. tariff agreement may provide some relief, any exemptions are expected to focus on commodities and resource-based products. Despite policy efforts to support prices, commodity-related exports remain highly volatile, limiting short-term growth in export value. He added that stricter foreign exchange repatriation rules set to take effect in 2026 further indicate that Indonesia’s current focus is on maintaining external stability and supporting the rupiah, rather than blindly accelerating exports.