Warren Patterson, Head of Commodity Strategy at INTRASEM, stated that the impact of U.S. actions in Venezuela on the global oil market will largely depend on the progress of the country’s political transition. He noted: “A prolonged and chaotic transition will increase the risk of short-term supply disruptions. "By contrast, a smooth transition is more likely to prompt the U.S. to lift its blockade on tankers carrying sanctioned oil to and from Venezuela, which could lead to downward pressure on prices in the short term and open the door to further sanctions relief in the future. Patterson said, “For now, last weekend’s developments have not prompted us to change our outlook for the 2026 oil market. We still expect a well-supplied market to keep prices down and maintain our forecast of an average Brent crude price of $57 per barrel for 2026.”