Analysts at Raymond James noted that Venezuela’s oil production is subject to several “uncertainties,” particularly the pace of government transition and the speed and willingness of multinational oil companies to return to the country. In an optimistic scenario, production would rise to over 2 million barrels per day by 2030 and trend toward 3 million barrels thereafter. However, analysts noted that this would only be achievable if “U.S. (and allied) oil companies returning to Venezuela have sufficient security guarantees and incentives.” Furthermore, if the transition is delayed and the blockade continues, analysts believe “it may be necessary to shut down some production facilities,” which could result in a decline in daily output of nearly 500,000 barrels.