David Cowan, Chief Economist for Africa at Citigroup, noted that currency depreciation was a widespread phenomenon across the African continent between 2022 and 2024, occurring in countries such as Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe. Although the subsequent weakening of the U.S. dollar and a mining boom provided some relief for metal-exporting countries like Zambia and Ghana, energy-producing nations have seen little sign of relief as global crude oil oversupply has dragged down oil prices. Cowan wrote, “In the case of Angola, depreciation is more likely to be linked to oil prices.” He predicts that the local currency, the kwanza, will come under pressure if crude oil prices fall sharply in 2026. Brent crude futures are currently fluctuating around $62 per barrel, but many strategists expect them to drop to around $55, extending last year’s 20% decline. Cowan noted that falling oil prices would initially manifest through increased demand for foreign exchange. The central bank’s response would be to “first deplete” its foreign exchange reserves rather than resort to rapid devaluation. He added that the result would be “new restrictions on foreign exchange allocation, leading to a foreign exchange shortage and potentially fueling a massive parallel foreign exchange market.”