Annual Rebalancing of Commodity Indexes Begins Thursday; Over $10 Billion in Passive Selling to Hit Gold and Silver
Analyst Divyang Shah noted that the commodities sector will see a round of rebalancing-related fund adjustments on Thursday. Two widely used benchmark indices—the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI)—will adjust their weightings, which in turn will force funds tracking these indices to adjust their positions accordingly.Current market consensus estimates are as follows: ① The index weightings for gold and silver will be reduced, potentially triggering total rebalancing-related selling exceeding $11 billion, with some estimates reaching as high as $14 billion.Relative to open interest, the scale of the adjustment for gold is roughly in line with previous years, but the adjustment for silver is expected to account for approximately 10% of its total open interest.② The index weightings for crude oil (Brent and WTI) will be increased, potentially triggering rebalancing buying totaling approximately $5–6 billion. This scale is reportedly slightly higher than in previous years.③ Among soft commodities, sugar and cocoa stand out, with buying volumes expected to account for approximately 5–6% and 23–25% of their open interest, respectively.Although the index rebalancing begins on Thursday, the entire adjustment process will be completed between the 5th and 9th trading days of January, lasting five trading days, and will specifically conclude on January 14 (next Wednesday).
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