Svmuu News: Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on the X platform that this Thursday at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for this month will be announced. Currently, the futures market shows a 99% probability of no change. For next month's meeting, the market believes there is a 97% probability of no change. The Federal Reserve's impact on the market in the next two months may be relatively limited. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 74,000, and the Greed Index is neutral:
1. Hawkish Signal: If the dot plot shows only 1 or even 0 rate cuts in 2026, market expectations will decline, liquidity will tighten, and BTC will very likely retest the $68,000 support level.
2. Dovish Surprise: As long as Jerome Powell mentions "inflation is under control" or "focus on the labor market," improved liquidity expectations will directly challenge the $800,000 mark.
3. X Factor: Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump's nominated potential new chairman, has policy preferences that are harder to predict than Powell's. The market fears most a "policy vacuum" or a "hawkish shift." Before the April meeting, institutional funds may choose to de-risk and sell off, leading to significant volatility in altcoins.