Svmuu News, according to a post by Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, on the X platform, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for this month will be announced at 2 a.m. this Thursday. Currently, the futures market indicates a 99% probability of no change, and for next month's decision, the market currently sees a 97% probability of no change. The Fed's impact on the market over the next two months may be relatively limited. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $74,000, with the greed index in neutral territory:
1. Hawkish Signal: If the dot plot shows only 1 or even 0 rate cuts for 2026, market expectations would decline, liquidity would tighten, and BTC is highly likely to retest the $68,000 support level.
2. Dovish Surprise: As long as Powell mentions "inflation is under control" or "focus on the labor market," improved liquidity expectations would directly challenge the $80,000 mark.
3. X-Factor: Kevin Warsh, the potential new chair nominee by Trump, has policy preferences that are even more unpredictable than Powell's. What the market fears most is a "policy vacuum" or a "hawkish shift in leadership." Before the April meeting, institutional funds might choose to de-risk and sell off, leading to significant volatility in altcoins.