Svmuu News Investment bank TD Cowen stated that the time window for the U.S. Congress to pass a crypto market structure bill may be longer than market expectations, potentially extending until the August congressional recess, rather than having to be completed before the Easter recess.
Jaret Seiberg, head of TD Cowen's Washington research group, noted in a report, "There is no reason to believe a deal must be reached in the coming weeks." He indicated that the Easter recess is not a critical deadline, and legislative work can continue around the recess period.
Seiberg also believes that as primary elections conclude throughout the year, some lawmakers may face reduced political pressure, potentially creating more room for negotiation and increasing the likelihood of reaching an agreement.
Currently, the disagreement between the crypto industry and the banking sector over stablecoin yield remains a major obstacle to the bill's progress. Banks advocate for prohibiting crypto platforms from offering yields on stablecoins to prevent capital outflows from the banking system. Meanwhile, some Democratic lawmakers are demanding the inclusion of conflict-of-interest provisions targeting senior government officials in the bill, a requirement reportedly opposed by President Trump.
Previously, Trump publicly accused the banking industry of delaying the legislative process and stated that banks should reach an agreement with the crypto industry to facilitate the bill's passage in the Senate.
According to TD Cowen's analysis, negotiations are currently nearing a potential compromise, such as prohibiting yields on idle stablecoin balances while allowing reward mechanisms based on transactional activity.
However, the firm also warned that if congressional control changes after the 2026 midterm elections, the bill's passage could be delayed until 2027.