Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for the Polymarket contract "US-Iran Ceasefire by April 30" surged sharply by 32% in a short period, currently reported at 28%, representing a 10% increase over the past 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for this "When will the US-Iran ceasefire occur?" event contract has exceeded $95 million. The contract rules for this event are as follows: If the United States and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement (defined as a publicly announced cessation of direct military actions agreed upon by both parties) before the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A "formal ceasefire agreement" requires explicit public confirmation from both the US and Iranian governments that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against each other, or overwhelming consensus confirmation through media reports that a formal ceasefire agreement has been reached.
Currently, the US, Iran, and regional mediators are urgently negotiating a 45-day interim ceasefire agreement aimed at creating space for a permanent end to the war. The urgency of the situation stems from a previous ultimatum issued by Trump, which extended the original Monday deadline by 20 hours, setting a new cutoff time for Tuesday at 8 PM Eastern Time. It is reported that the focus of discussions is a "two-phase" plan: The first phase involves implementing a 45-day interim ceasefire, during which both sides will initiate in-depth negotiations on a permanent ceasefire. If progress is smooth, the ceasefire period can be further extended. The second phase involves reaching a final agreement, the contents of which will address the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium (including removal from Iran or dilution).
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.