Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of a "US-Iran ceasefire by May 15" on Polymarket has dropped to 37%, a 45% decline in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for the "When will the US-Iran ceasefire happen?" event contract has exceeded $107 million. The rules for this event contract are: if the United States and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement (defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed cessation of direct military operations) before the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will resolve to "YES"; otherwise, it will resolve to "NO". A "formal ceasefire agreement" requires explicit public confirmation from both the US and Iranian governments that they have agreed to cease military hostilities against each other, or overwhelming consensus through media reports confirming that a formal ceasefire has been reached.
US Vice President Vance previously reiterated that the deadline for Iran is 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday (8:00 AM Beijing Time on Wednesday), stating that the action on Kharg Island does not signify a strategic shift. Earlier, according to two US officials, the US launched strikes on military targets on Kharg Island early Tuesday (local time), ahead of the deadline set by Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. One of the officials stated that the US struck over 50 targets on the island. Officials said the strikes were conducted in the early hours of Tuesday Eastern Time and did not target oil infrastructure. Trump had set Tuesday evening (Eastern Time) as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of the risk of devastating strikes on its energy infrastructure otherwise.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.