Analysis: Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Fails to Resolve Shipping Crisis; No Concrete Details Yet on Resumption of Shipping Operations
Svmuu News: Although the fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran initially caused oil prices to plummet, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted on Thursday, and conditions in the region have yet to improve. On Wednesday, only seven vessels with ties to Iran were observed leaving the Persian Gulf. Iranian state media reported that, to demonstrate Tehran’s efforts to formally control the waterway, the Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization has issued two safe shipping routes. These routes are necessary because various anti-ship mines may be present along the conventional shipping lanes through the narrow strait. Martin Kelly, Head of Consulting at EOS Risk Group, stated that the renewed discussion of mines in the Strait of Hormuz represents the “worst-case scenario for the shipping industry.” If mines are laid along the standard shipping routes, it will take at least several months to restore safe passage. The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), an industry organization, noted that more work needs to be done before ships can pass through the strait in large numbers again. ICS Secretary General Thomas Kazakos said there has been little movement so far because no reliable confirmation has been received regarding the assurance of safe passage, nor has any specific information been provided on how normal passage will be restored. (Jin Shi)
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