Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for the Polymarket event "Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by May 31" has significantly decreased, dropping 6% in 1 hour and 12% in 24 hours.
The contract rules for this event are: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or exceeding 60 on any date from market creation until May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "YES". Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Pakistani media confirmed today that an Iranian delegation has arrived for negotiations. The main talks between Iran and the United States will be held tomorrow. The U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan will focus on opening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire. Furthermore, the U.S. delegation participating in the U.S.-Iran talks has departed for Islamabad, Pakistan, with Vice President Vance having boarded the plane. Before departure, Vance stated that he looks forward to negotiations on the Iran issue and mentioned that U.S. President Trump has provided "fairly clear guidelines" for the talks.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.