Svmuu Seer's oracle channel monitoring shows that a whale at address 0xa7d1...b824 has accumulated $527,000 in "Iranian regime to fall by June 30," and is currently down $345,000. Previously, this whale had purchased $176,000 in "US military invades Iran by March 31" and $148,000 in "Iranian regime falls by March 31," both of which were incorrect predictions.

According to the market's resolution rules, the "Yes" condition for this event is extremely stringent: it requires the current ruling system of the Islamic Republic of Iran (such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or the clergy-led Revolutionary Guard) to be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a completely different governance system by June 30, 2026. The resolution must be based on a consensus among recognized authoritative media, confirming that the regime has lost effective control over the majority of the population. The rules explicitly state that regular political elections, internal reforms, or power transitions do not meet the resolution criteria. Even if an internal coup occurs, as long as the core structure of the Islamic Republic is retained, the market will still settle as "No." Furthermore, the loss of some territory or challenges from anti-government forces, unless they lead to the regime being unable to govern the majority of the national population, also does not constitute a "fall."

Svmuu Seer's oracle channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced.