Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Israel launching a strike against Yemen before April 30" on Polymarket has dropped to 14%, a 32% decrease in 24 hours.
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will host talks between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington on the 14th. The talks come as the conflict between the two sides continues, focusing on the possibility of a ceasefire, Hezbollah's disarmament, and a long-term peace agreement. It is reported that after President Trump pressured for a de-escalation of the conflict, Netanyahu agreed to advance negotiations, and the U.S. has requested Israel to suspend some military operations. As diplomatic mediation begins, market expectations for Israel opening a new front in Yemen have significantly cooled.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to focus on prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.