Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that although Powell's term as Chair ends on May 15th, the probability on Polymarket of Powell stepping down as Fed Chair after his term expires (May 14th) is only 2%, indicating Powell is likely to continue serving as the Fed's interim Chair.
The key to whether Powell can continue as Fed Chair after his term expires lies in whether Kevin Warsh, Trump's chosen successor, can secure Congressional confirmation at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on April 21st. Powell previously stated that if a successor is not confirmed by May, he will serve as interim Chair.
Therefore, the market is indirectly betting that Warsh will struggle to gain Congressional approval by April 21st or even before May 15th. The reason is that North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis is obstructing this appointment, stating he will not advance any Fed nominee's process until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into Powell.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.