According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel, the probability of "Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair before May 15" on Polymarket has risen from 27% to 85%, surging 211% in the short term.
The reason is that the U.S. Department of Justice is expected to drop the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Previously, Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, stated that if Trump does not withdraw the criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Powell, he would block Warsh's nomination for Fed Chair from reaching a full Senate vote.
Under the influence of the news that the DOJ will drop the criminal investigation into Powell, the market now expects a very high likelihood of Warsh being confirmed by the Senate as Fed Chair before Powell's term expires (May 15).
The Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets — seeing changes before prices are set.