Svmuu Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket data indicates the prediction probability for "US-Iran holding diplomatic talks before April 30" is currently 52%, up 6% in a short period.
According to NDTV, sources say the second round of negotiations between Iran and the US is scheduled for April 27.
Per market rules, if representatives of the US and Iran hold formal diplomatic talks before 23:59 ET on April 30, the market will resolve to "Yes." Diplomatic talks are defined as formal meetings where representatives from both sides participate in an official capacity and are authorized to do so, including indirect face-to-face meetings mediated by a third party, but excluding brief greetings or chance encounters for non-diplomatic purposes. The meeting must be face-to-face and acknowledged by the government or reported by credible media.
Svmuu Seer Prophecy Channel continuously monitors prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.