Svmuu Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket data indicates the prediction probability of "US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 29" has dropped to 16%, a short-term decline of 39%.
According to market rules, if representatives of the United States and Iran hold a formal diplomatic meeting before 23:59 EDT on April 29, the market will be resolved to "Yes." A diplomatic meeting is defined as a formal meeting where representatives from both sides participate in an official capacity with authorization, including indirect face-to-face meetings through mediators. However, brief greetings or encounters for non-diplomatic purposes are excluded. The meeting must be conducted in person and recognized by the government or reported by credible media.
Svmuu Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.