Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of a "permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran before April 30" is only 4%, down 7% in 24 hours. To date, the total trading volume for the event contract "Permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran before the specified date" has exceeded $54 million.
The rules for this event contract are: If Iran and the United States reach a permanent peace agreement before the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, the market will be judged as "No". A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or an agreement using similar wording clearly indicating that military hostilities between the United States and Iran will permanently end. Agreements explicitly designated as temporary, or final agreements that do not include the permanent cessation of military hostilities between the United States and Iran (for example, a temporary extension of a two-week ceasefire announced on April 7, 2026) do not qualify. The primary source of information for this market is official information from the US and Iranian governments; however, other credible reports may also be referenced.
US President Donald Trump previously stated that he would not go to the trouble of going to Pakistan just to obtain a worthless agreement from Iran.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.