Svmuu Seer monitoring shows a new prediction event on Polymarket: “Will US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump’s visit to China?”. Currently, the probability of reaching a permanent peace agreement is temporarily reported at 7%.
Previously, in mid-April, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding Trump’s visit to China, but there has been no recent progress on the matter.
The settlement rule for this event is: If the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump’s visit to China, the market will be resolved as “Yes”. Otherwise, the market will be resolved as “No”.
If, by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, neither a qualifying peace agreement has been reached nor has Trump’s visit to China occurred, the market will be resolved as “No”.
A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or an agreement using similar wording that explicitly indicates the permanent end of military hostilities between the US and Iran. Agreements explicitly designated as temporary or that do not include the permanent end of military hostilities between the US and Iran do not qualify.
A qualifying agreement is considered to have been reached if any of the following conditions are met:
1. The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g., a treaty or multi-article agreement) that meets the criteria above.
2. Both the US and Iranian governments publicly and explicitly confirm that a qualifying agreement has been finalized. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other final statements that do not constitute a finalized qualifying agreement will not be recognized.
In this market, “visit” is defined as Trump physically entering the land or territorial waters of the listed country. Whether Trump enters the country’s airspace during the market period is irrelevant to the final outcome.
The primary basis for determining whether a peace agreement has been reached is official information from the US and Iranian governments, but consensus from credible reports may also be consulted. The primary source for Trump’s visit to China is official information from the US government, as well as official information posted by Trump himself or his verified social media accounts. However, consensus from other credible reports will also be considered.
Svmuu Seer continuously follows the prediction market, seeing changes before the pricing.