Svmuu reported that Barclays analysts pointed out that prediction markets are threatening other speculative investment tools and have already become a formidable rival to leveraged ETPs. Data shows that since the 2024 US presidential election, the monthly notional trading volume on prediction platforms has continued to grow. In April, the notional trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $24 billion, nearly matching the scale of "overbought call option strategies" on indices and individual stocks, compared to just $5 billion a year ago.
Analysts believe the prediction market boom is not driven by an AI bubble, but rather stems from viral spread among younger generations. Nearly one-third of Gen Z and the next cohort, Millennials, are engaging in or considering participating in prediction markets and sports betting. However, at the current stage, prediction markets still struggle to compete with the flagship retail product 0DTE, as the total trading volume of the S&P 0DTE market reached a staggering $57 trillion in March this year. (CNBC)