Svmuu reports that SpaceX is set to launch its IPO, with an estimated fundraising scale of $50 billion to $75 billion, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. Analysts point out that SpaceX's ultra-high valuation means it could quickly enter major indices and ETFs after listing, with passive capital allocation speed potentially far exceeding that of previous large-scale IPOs.
According to current rules and potential reforms:
1. Vanguard's VTI, which tracks the total market, and the growth stock ETF VUG, corresponding to the CRSP index, could potentially include SpaceX within 5 trading days after its listing;
2. The Nasdaq 100 index tracked by QQQ could potentially include SpaceX within 15 trading days after its listing;
3. The Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 Growth indices are expected to include SpaceX as early as September and December this year;
4. The S&P 500 index tracked by SPY could potentially include SpaceX in 2027 after rule modifications.
SpaceX's weight in the Nasdaq 100 is expected to reach 0.47%-0.70%, higher than its proportion in most float-adjusted market cap weighted indices. Analysts say that as the lock-up period ends and more insider shareholders sell their shares, SpaceX's float could increase in the future, thereby further boosting its weight in major indices. However, SpaceX's biggest current issue lies in its relatively low "Float." Based on the current financing structure, its public float ratio is only about 2.86%-3.75%, far below the average level of over 80% for most large US technology companies. This will affect its weighting in indices that employ a "float-adjusted market cap weighted" mechanism. (BusinessInsider)