Svmuu Seer 先知频道 monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market "When will Vance leave the Vice President position", with the probability of departure this year currently reported at 10%. However, the trading volume for this option is only $20,000, making its validity relatively weak.
The settlement rules for this market state that if, during the period from the market's establishment to the specified date (Eastern Time), Vance no longer serves as Vice President of the United States, regardless of the duration, the result of this market will be judged as "Yes." Otherwise, it will be judged as "No."
Svmuu Seer 先知频道 continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing takes place.