Svmuu reports that BIT has pointed out that the market is repricing around SpaceX's potential largest-ever IPO, with a target valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. However, expectations in the secondary market have already been revised upwards to around $2.3 trillion, corresponding to a premium of approximately 34% on the Pre-IPO contracts traded on Binance and Hyperliquid.
The market pricing logic has shifted from a "rocket company" to an "AI + Global Connectivity + Space Infrastructure Platform." As SpaceX integrates into the xAI asset system, its total addressable market (TAM) has expanded to approximately $28.5 trillion. This includes an AI-related market of roughly $26.5 trillion, a global connectivity network of about $1.6 trillion, while traditional space business accounts for only $400 billion. The core business, Starlink, generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, a 50% year-over-year increase, with an EBITDA margin of 63%. However, its ARPU has declined from $99 to $66, reflecting the rebalancing pressure between growth and profitability structure.
In the long term, the core of the market's bet remains the expansion of the space economy. The global space economy is expected to grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2033, with the integration of satellite networks, orbital data, and AI computing infrastructure seen as the main growth driver. SpaceX's current valuation is already highly discounting future expectations. In the short term, attention must be paid to valuation and liquidity constraints. However, looking at the medium to long term, the "AI + Space + Communications Infrastructure" convergence narrative it represents could still become one of the core themes in the next phase of the tech capital market.