Svmuu reports: Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani posted on X platform analyzing three possible scenarios for the development of Kalshi and the US crypto perpetual contract market:
1. Kalshi's previous efforts are irrelevant: Because the US market itself can already offer unregulated perpetual contracts.
2. Protocols must pass the eight decentralized tests of the CLARITY Act: If the CLARITY Act passes smoothly, protocols can offer perpetual contracts in the US without registering as a DCO (Designated Contract Organizer) and DCM (Designated Contract Market).
3. Products can still attract users but cannot legally enter the US financial system: Even with user recognition, protocols may still be unable to distribute within a compliant framework.
Analysis suggests that these potential outcomes highlight the complex relationship between current US derivatives regulation and decentralized protocols, as well as the uncertainty surrounding the compliant implementation of innovative financial products.