Svmuu Seer monitoring shows that the probability of "SpaceX raising $70B-$80B in its IPO" on Polymarket is now at 88%, up 20% intraday.
The market settles based on the total funds raised at the time of SpaceX's IPO pricing, according to data disclosed in the SEC's final prospectus. Over-allotment option shares are not counted, nor are private secondary transactions. If the amount raised falls exactly at a boundary point, it settles at the higher bracket; if the IPO is not completed by December 31, 2026, it settles at the lowest bracket.
Previous news: Elon Musk's SpaceX disclosed in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday that it plans to fix the offering price at $135 per share (consistent with the price disclosed by sources) before officially launching IPO roadshow activities. SpaceX stated it plans to issue 555.6 million shares, thereby raising $75 billion.
Svmuu Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.