According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, a new event titled “Will the U.S. government revoke public access to another major AI model?” has been listed on Polymarket, with the probability currently reported at 33%.
The settlement rules are as follows: If, by the end of 2026, the U.S. federal government passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other measures that substantially restrict the U.S. public’s access to a major AI model, the outcome of this market will be determined as “Yes.” Otherwise, the outcome will be determined as “No.” “Qualifying actions” refer to formal measures taken by the U.S. government that have the effect of completely prohibiting public access to a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the true purpose or stated objective of the action, if an action effectively prevents the public from accessing the model within the United States—such as prohibiting the provision of the model to foreign citizens or governments—it meets the eligibility criteria as long as the general public cannot access the model through normal channels within the United States. Simply excluding access to the model through a single channel is insufficient. Removals that do not result from any formal action by the U.S. government and that fall within the scope of general public access do not meet the eligibility criteria.
“Mainstream AI models” refer to flagship, general-purpose large language models or multimodal foundation models developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are obsolete or used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.
The action may target a single model or a group of models, provided that at least one significant AI model is thereby prohibited from public access throughout the United States. A temporary ban on public access to a model satisfies this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public still has access to the model before the resolution takes effect, then that action does not meet this criterion.
The market’s information sources include official information and announcements from the U.S. government and relevant AI companies. However, reliable reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.
The Svmuu Seer channel continuously monitors prediction markets to spot changes before they are priced in.